Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Biggest moves today

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When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin? (COMP360…before December 98% ▲ 6

FDA & drugs news

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Pharma’s trade group spent heavily on search ads to sway public opinionSTAT · 4 days ago
Novartis cites cases of previously unknown tumors possibly tied to its SMA gene therapySTAT · 4 days ago
US Could Enlist Celebrities, Influencers in Fight Against Fake MedicinesNewsweek · 4 days ago
Pharmalittle: We’re reading about India’s new manufacturing rules, clinical trials in China, and moreSTAT · 4 days ago
Medicare delays controversial RPM rule updateSTAT · 5 days ago
Revolution Medicines’ pancreatic cancer drug has stunning commercial debutSTAT · 5 days ago
In China, a flood of controversial clinical trials slows to a trickleSTAT · 5 days ago
'I felt imprisoned in my home after being paralysed'BBC News · 5 days ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions