Will the FDA approve retatrutide? (retatrutide (LY3437943))

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $597 today · $9.2K traded · $4.8K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

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The odds

Dec 9, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20272%
  • Before Jul 1, 202712%▼ 9
  • Before Jan 1, 202856%
  • Before Jul 1, 202885%
  • Before Jan 1, 202990%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 74.3K
Before Jul 1, 2027 12% ▼ 9 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 28.2K
Before Jan 1, 2028 56% 55¢ 56¢ $1.79 8.0K
Before Jul 1, 2028 85% 84¢ 85¢ $1.18 217
Before Jan 1, 2029 90% 89¢ 90¢ $1.11 303

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, LY3437943

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  • FDA OKs generic HIV prevention shot, widening access for lower-income countriesSTAT · 7 days agoEd Silverman, a senior writer and Pharmalot columnist at STAT, has been covering the pharmaceutical industry for more than three decades. His stories explore prescription drug pricing, affordability and access, as well issues surrounding…
  • FDA plans to update nutrition rules for infant formulaNBC News · 10 days agoThe Food and Drug Administration plans to introduce new rules around what nutrients must be added to infant formula. The changes the FDA plans to propose, which were shared in advance with NBC News, would tweak the minimum and maximum…
  • FDA news in pediatrics: October 2026@onclive · 8 days agoContemporary Pediatrics FDA news in pediatrics: October 2026 A recap of the top FDA approvals, regulatory decisions, and pipeline updates affecting pediatric care during October 2026. October's FDA pediatric news clustered around label…
  • The FDA wants to pull its approval of a drug. It’s not so easy.Ars Technica · 10 days agoThe regulator says Tavneos was approved on the basis of manipulated study data. Should patients still have access to it? At the same time, many patients, and some physicians, saw in the data a potentially helpful medication, one that might…
  • FDA again bypasses advisers to remove black-box warnings from menopause treatmentsthe Guardian · 10 days agoSome experts express concern about ‘lack of transparency’ as agency removes warnings on three estrogen patches Three more patches for treating menopause will no longer carry black-box warnings about cardiovascular disease, breast cancer…
  • Medline electric beds pose fire hazard after 2 deaths, FDA warnsCBS News · 10 days agoUpdated on: October 30, 2026 / 11:25 AM EDT / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration is warning that electric hospital beds from medical equipment supplier Medline can pose a fire hazard, after two people died and another 16 users were…
  • FDA approves more affordable version of HIV-prevention shot@WBTV_News · 8 days agoThe announcement was made on Monday morning by the manufacturer and organizations that helped to speed up development of the medication, called lenacapavir. The drug is expected to cost $40 a year per person in the countries where it will…
  • FDA approves ranibizumab biosimilar Lucamzi for wet AMD@OphthTimes · 7 days agoWhat is Lucamzi approved for? Lucamzi (ranibizumab-blrz) is approved as a biosimilar to Lucentis for wet AMD and other serious eye conditions, according to Xbrane.1 How does Lucamzi work? Lucamzi is a biosimilar of ranibizumab, the active…
  • uniQure gains FDA Priority Review for Huntington's disease gene therapySeeking Alpha · 7 days agoThe FDA accepts uniQure's Huntington's gene therapy ifezuntirgene inilparvovec filing with Priority Review. Read more here. - The US FDA has accepted uniQure's (QURE) BLA and granted Priority Review for its gene therapy ifezuntirgene…
  • US FDA approves generic twice-yearly HIV prevention shotDaily Sabah · 7 days agoThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved a generic version of a twice-yearly HIV prevention injection, paving the way for faster access to more affordable treatment in 120 low- and middle-income countries. The announcement was…
  • AMA urges FDA to pursue safety standards for botanical productsAmerican Medical Association · 8 days agoJordan Raynor, MD, shares how Reid Health secured six straight prestigious awards in stroke care and what others can learn from this rural health system. Perimenopause symptoms can be confusing. Learn what perimenopause is, when it starts…
  • Popular children’s snack recalled nationwide over choking risk, FDA warnsWXII · 8 days agoA popular children's snack has been recalled nationwide, with federal officials warning of a "potentially fatal choking hazard." The Food and Drug Administration is warning families not to buy or serve Once Upon a Farm’s Tractor Wheels…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions