Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2034 · $1.1K traded · $231 at stake · prices read 30 min ago

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The odds

83%Before 2035
  • Before 203583%▼ 1
  • Before 203477%▼ 1
  • Before 203375%▼ 1
  • Before 203272%▼ 1
  • Before 203165%▼ 1
  • Before 203053%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before 2035: 83% on Oct 20, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before 2035 83% ▼ 1 79¢ 87¢ $1.15 332
Before 2034 77% ▼ 1 73¢ 81¢ $1.23 48.00
Before 2033 75% ▼ 1 71¢ 79¢ $1.27 2.00
Before 2032 72% ▼ 1 68¢ 76¢ $1.32 35.00
Before 2031 65% ▼ 1 61¢ 69¢ $1.45 117
Before 2030 53% ▼ 1 49¢ 56¢ $1.79 1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, VERVE

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  • FDA OKs generic HIV prevention shot, widening access for lower-income countriesSTAT · 7 days agoEd Silverman, a senior writer and Pharmalot columnist at STAT, has been covering the pharmaceutical industry for more than three decades. His stories explore prescription drug pricing, affordability and access, as well issues surrounding…
  • Odigo Verve launched to assist in EV buying journeyTransport + Energy · 8 days agoOdigo Verve, a new independent mobility and sustainability service, has launched with a simple ambition: to make choosing an electric vehicle (EV), a salary sacrifice scheme, or the right way to fund a car “feel exciting rather than…
  • Verve tap-to-pay next, with AI agent payments to followGeeky Nigeria · 7 days agoNigeria's largest card network plans to enable customers to make payments by touching their handsets to a terminal, with Verve tap-to-pay as the first step, and later to pass payment chores on to AI assistants, according to CEO Vincent…
  • FDA Psychiatry Digest: October 2026Medscape · 7 days agoMedscape FDA Psychiatry Digest: October 2026 Edited by Dawn Attride This digest highlights FDA activity in October related to therapeutics for psychiatric illness. For information on approvals in other specialties during 2026, see our FDA…
  • Verve Introduces Mobile Tap-to-Pay for Nigerian CardholdersProduct Reviews · 9 days agoPaying for everyday purchases could become easier for Nigerian consumers as Verve expands its payment options with Mobile Tap-to-Pay, allowing eligible cardholders to make contactless payments using compatible smartphones and wearable…
  • Palvella Wins Priority FDA Review for Rare Disease DrugMyChesCo · 7 days agoWAYNE, PA — Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: PVLA) has secured priority review from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its experimental treatment of microcystic lymphatic malformations, putting the Wayne-based biotechnology…
  • FDA news in pediatrics: October 2026@onclive · 7 days agoContemporary Pediatrics FDA news in pediatrics: October 2026 A recap of the top FDA approvals, regulatory decisions, and pipeline updates affecting pediatric care during October 2026. October's FDA pediatric news clustered around label…
  • FDA Approves STADA/Xbrane’s Biosimilar RanibizumabPearce IP · 7 days agoHome / News / BioBlast® On 27 October 2026, STADA and Xbrane Biopharma (Xbrane) announced that the FDA has approved Lucamzi™ (ranibizumab-blrz), biosimilar to Genentech’s Lucentis®, for the treatment of neovascular (wet) age-related…
  • FDA proposes rule to update infant nutrient requirementsdairybusinessmea.com · 7 days agoThe proposed changes represent the first phase of the FDA’s comprehensive review of the 30 nutrients currently required in infant formula marketed in the United States. Published November 2, 2026 USA – The Food and Drug Administration has…
  • Maha FDA minister stays methanol firm’s licence suspensionHindustan Times · 7 days agoMumbai: Maharashtra food and drugs administration (FDA) minister Narhari Zirwal has temporarily stayed the regulatory authority’s decision to suspend the licence of a methanol manufacturer in Pune district, following alleged regulatory…
  • ​FDA finalises cell and gene therapy potency guidanceEuropean Pharmaceutical Review · 7 days agoThe FDA has issued final guidance outlining a science- and risk-based approach to potency assurance for cell and gene therapy (CGT) products, replacing its previous 2011 recommendations and setting out expectations across the product…
  • SeaStar Medical Meets FDA Post-Approval Study Requirements for QUELIMMUNETradingView · 7 days agoTradingView SeaStar Medical Meets FDA Post-Approval Study Requirements for QUELIMMUNE SeaStar Medical said the FDA confirmed QUELIMMUNE’s pediatric SAVE Registry fulfilled the therapy’s post-approval study requirements, enabling broader…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions