How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
When will FISA be reauthorized again? (legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority)
The odds
42%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Dec 1, 20262%▼ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202739%▼ 6
- Before Apr 1, 202742%▼ 9
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 20% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 10 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 23% → 17%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 15, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 36.5K | |||
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 41.1K | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 63.2K | |||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2% | ▼ 5 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.0K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 39% | ▼ 6 | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 23.7K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 42% | ▼ 9 | 40¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FISA Section, FISA
Search ›- The EU-US Data Privacy Framework Is Built on an Executive Order — and That's the ProblemSafe Harbor lasted 15 years before the Court of Justice of the European Union struck it down. Privacy Shield lasted four. The Data Privacy Framework is barely three years old, already at the CJEU on appeal — and the US oversight board that…
- FISA, US intelligence community, surveillance, privacy | Homeland Security NewswireThe FBI claims misconduct is down, oversight is up, and the FISA Court, which signs off on the government’s surveillance requests, is offering its resounding approval. The administration’s position is ... FISA SURVEILLANCEWhy Is the…
- Why is the Government Hiding Court Rebuke on Warrantless FISA Surveillance?Jake Laperruque is a policy advocate and expert on privacy and technology, and serves as the Deputy Director of the Security and Surveillance Project at the Center For Democracy & Technology (CDT). His work focuses on national security…
- Secret FISA Ruling Allegedly Details Warrantless Searches of Americans’ MessagesA warrantless search by any other name still looks like a warrantless search. The US federal government is violating the law by keeping secret a March 17 ruling of the FISA Court regarding Section 702 surveillance, say two US senators. The…
- Trump Administration Defies FISA Declassification Law as Senators Press DNI Clayton to ActThe March 17 FISC opinion sits at the center of months of congressional controversy over Section 702, the authority that allows the U.S. government to warrantlessly collect foreign targets' electronic and phone communications — including…
- Warrant debate continues to hang over FISA renewalLawmakers on both sides of the aisle threw fresh uncertainty into the debate over renewing warrantless surveillance authority on Monday. Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Va., said the program known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence…
- Keeping Pace with the Frontier: An Early Warning System for Accelerated AI R&D AutomationAI is playing a growing role in building the next generation of AI. Recently, Anthropic reported that, as of August 2026, Claude was leading 26% of the developer’s AI Research and Development (AI R&D) activities, up from around 1% in March…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions