How long will the next FISA authorization be in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $40 today · $10.1K traded · $2.8K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

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The odds

40%At least 30 days
  • At least 30 days40%▼ 9
  • At least 90 days36%▼ 17
  • At least 1 year31%▼ 16
  • At least 2 years28%▼ 17
  • At least 5 years3%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

At least 30 days: 54% on Oct 20, 40% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 9, 8 PM ETAt least 30 days: 48% → 40%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 30 days 40% ▼ 9 36¢ 44¢ $2.27 12.5K
At least 90 days 36% ▼ 17 32¢ 39¢ $2.56 4.8K
At least 1 year 31% ▼ 16 27¢ 34¢ $2.94 5.4K
At least 2 years 28% ▼ 17 26¢ 30¢ $3.33 6.2K
At least 5 years 3% ▼ 3 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FISA

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  • FISA Section 702 Lapses in CongressStrauss Center · 7 days agoThe Strauss Center's research programs support scholars and inform policymakers across three distinct areas of focus. National Security Law & Institutions We offer an array of courses and fellowships for students at The University of Texas…
  • FISA's Section 702: What's Next After Lapse?Strauss Center · 7 days agoThe Strauss Center's research programs support scholars and inform policymakers across three distinct areas of focus. National Security Law & Institutions We offer an array of courses and fellowships for students at The University of Texas…
  • Strauss Center Director Adam Klein Appointed to Congressional FISA Reform CommissionStrauss Center · 7 days agoThe Strauss Center's research programs support scholars and inform policymakers across three distinct areas of focus. National Security Law & Institutions We offer an array of courses and fellowships for students at The University of Texas…
  • FISA, US intelligence community, surveillance, privacy | Homeland Security Newswirehomelandsecuritynewswire.com · 10 days agoThe FBI claims misconduct is down, oversight is up, and the FISA Court, which signs off on the government’s surveillance requests, is offering its resounding approval. The administration’s position is ... FISA SURVEILLANCEWhy Is the…
  • Why is the Government Hiding Court Rebuke on Warrantless FISA Surveillance?Just Security · 12 days agoJake Laperruque is a policy advocate and expert on privacy and technology, and serves as the Deputy Director of the Security and Surveillance Project at the Center For Democracy & Technology (CDT). His work focuses on national security…
  • Secret FISA Ruling Allegedly Details Warrantless Searches of Americans’ MessagesReclaim The Net: Free Speech · 12 days agoA warrantless search by any other name still looks like a warrantless search. The US federal government is violating the law by keeping secret a March 17 ruling of the FISA Court regarding Section 702 surveillance, say two US senators. The…
  • Trump Administration Defies FISA Declassification Law as Senators Press DNI Clayton to ActTech Times · 14 days agoThe March 17 FISC opinion sits at the center of months of congressional controversy over Section 702, the authority that allows the U.S. government to warrantlessly collect foreign targets' electronic and phone communications — including…
  • Warrant debate continues to hang over FISA renewalRoll Call · 14 days agoLawmakers on both sides of the aisle threw fresh uncertainty into the debate over renewing warrantless surveillance authority on Monday. Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Va., said the program known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions