Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil? (Before Jul 2027)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $476 traded · $369 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

14%Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 20261%
Before Jan 1, 20273%
Before Feb 1, 20277%
Before Apr 1, 20279%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202714%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Dec 1, 2026: 5% on Nov 3, 1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026	1%			1¢	$100.00	29.0K
Before Jan 1, 2027	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	6.3K
Before Feb 1, 2027	7%		6¢	8¢	$12.50	150
Before Apr 1, 2027	9%	▼ 1	5¢	12¢	$8.33	9.00
Before Jul 1, 2027	14%	▼ 1	9¢	18¢	$5.56	132

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazil

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Flávio Bolsonaro battles to remain relevant as he speaks at rightwing conference at Mar-a-Lagothe Guardian · 4 days agoFlávio Bolsonaro, the far-right politician who lost Brazil’s presidential election last month, has insisted his defeat is not “the end for Brazil” as he battles to maintain political relevance after fleeing to the US. Bolsonaro absconded…
Flávio Bolsonaro Says Trump Doubts Brazil DemocracyThe Rio Times · 45 h agoFlávio Bolsonaro, the senator who lost Brazil’s presidential runoff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said on Saturday 7 November 2026 that Donald Trump is “convinced that Brazil is no longer a full democracy”. He made the remark in…
EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Flavio Bolsonaro on Leaving Brazil, Lula & MoreGlenn Greenwald · 3 days agoGlenn Greenwald spoke with Flavio Bolsonaro on Thursday in Miami about a range of topics for the Brazilian senator’s first on-camera interview since fleeing his home country for the U.S. EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Flavio Bolsonaro on…
Flávio Bolsonaro Rejects Election Results, Questions Whether Brazil Will Have Elections Again in Greenwald InterviewBreitbart · 3 days agoSen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the frontrunner in this year’s presidential election in Brazil, asserted on Friday that the results showing that incumbent socialist President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva defeated him were “impossible.” Bolsonaro…
Flávio Bolsonaro Makes First U.S. Appearance at CPAC Gala Nine Days After Fleeing BrazilLatin Times · 3 days agoNine days after a private jet deposited him at Miami's Opa-locka Executive Airport, Flávio Bolsonaro stepped back into the public eye Thursday evening at the Conservative Political Action Conference gala at Mar-a-Lago, President Donald…
Election Loser Flavio Bolsonaro Partying in the U.S.A.Drudge Retort · 3 days agoAfter losing an election in Brazil, rightwing Flavio Bolsonaro fled to the U.S., Thursday he was partying at Mar-a-Lago claiming "great things" were coming. Posted by Reinheitsgebot at 07:30 AM | 3 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This…
Flavio Bolsonaro Reveals Why He Fled To Miami; Then Makes One Big Admission...ZeroHedge · 2 days agoFlavio Bolsonaro, the Brazilian senator who fled to Miami two days after losing the presidential runoff to Lula, sat down with Glenn Greenwald on Thursday for his first on-camera interview since leaving the country - and spent much of it…
Flávio Bolsonaro appears at Mar-a-Lago as scrutiny of his US escape growsintellinews.com · 3 days agoFlávio Bolsonaro has made his first in-person public appearance since leaving Brazil, attending the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) ...
Flávio Bolsonaro reappears at conservative conference in Florida after losing elections in BrazilPlataforma Media · 4 days agoImages released from the event on Thursday show Flávio Bolsonaro at the conservative gathering, where he was scheduled to participate in a forum during the conference gala alongside American actor Jim Caviezel, who portrays his father and…
Flávio Bolsonaro says at CPAC in the US that defeat is not the end of Brazil — The GuardianUA.NEWS · 3 days agoBrazilian far-right politician Flávio Bolsonaro made his first appearance in the United States since leaving Brazil at a Conservative Political Action Conference event at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. He said that his defeat in the…
Flávio Bolsonaro Resurfaces at Trump's Mar-a-Lago After Fleeing Brazil, Draws Online Backlash: 'Refuge of Foreign Criminals'@IBTimesUK · 4 days agoFlávio Bolsonaro made his first major public appearance in the United States since leaving Brazil after his election defeat, joining conservative figures at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate on 5 November. His appearance at a Conservative…
Flávio Bolsonaro Reappears at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Nine Days After Fleeing BrazilLatin Times · 3 days agoThe senator lost the presidential runoff to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Oct. 25. Within 48 hours, he had left the country: He crossed into Argentina by land, boarded a private plane in Guayaquil, Ecuador, and flew to South…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onofficial government sources of Brazil, official social media accounts of Flávio Bolsonaro or their official representatives, local news outlets with verifiable

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$476 (35,538 contracts)

This week$474

At stake$369

In the news118 headlines today, 1,878 this week

Followed here sinceNov 2, 2026

The rules

If, after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions