Will France use Article 49.3 on its 2027 state budget in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31 · $365 traded · $347 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

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The odds

62%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 45% on Oct 21, 62% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 62% ▲ 1 58¢ 66¢ $1.52 589

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: France, Article

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  • 11/8/2026: Donald Trump; France on FireCBS News · 23 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. 11/8/2026: Donald…
  • Rubio heads to France for first post-midterm tripThe Washington Post · 27 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. At a Group of Seven…
  • Gossip: Magpies eye France defender GaniouBBC Sport · 27 h agoNewcastle United, Chelsea, Brentford, Fulham, Manchester City and Tottenham are among a number of sides monitoring 21-year-old French defender Ismaelo Ganiou, who plays for Lens. (Teamtalk), external Khawaja 100% accurate on ball-tampering…
  • France braces for more chaos as nationwide riots rageFox News · 32 h agoFox News covers continued protests across France for a fourth consecutive weekend as demonstrators clash with police over rising living costs, wages and education funding. France braces for more chaos as nationwide riots rage Fox News…
  • Protests in France turn violent as inflation anger boils overFox News · 28 h agoFox News' Stephanie Bennett reports on massive protests sweeping France over inflation and education issues as tensions rise across the country ... Protests in France turn violent as inflation anger boils over Fox News' Stephanie Bennett…
  • El-Sayed blasted killing of Al-Qaeda terrorist US citizen in resurfaced articleNew York Post · 31 h agoWASHINGTON — Michigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed once ripped into former President Barack Obama’s drone strike against a US citizen believed to be an al-Qaeda leader and had a dramatic warning for the Muslim Brotherhood, resurfaced articles…
  • France's cost of living protests continueCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Inside the…
  • 60 Minutes Transcript: How protests could push France to political extremesCBS News · 27 h agoNovember 8, 2026 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News Protests are tearing across France. violence has erupted in its romantic boulevards, looters have invaded the chic boutiques, and the scent of warm croissants and fresh baguettes has been…
  • Sunday on 60 Minutes: France on fireCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Sunday on 60…
  • Russian-linked disinformation may be amplifying France unrest, ex-CIA officer saysFox News · 39 h agoFormer senior CIA operations officer Raymond White discusses escalating protests in France and Russia's potential influence as Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Paris for G7 talks. Russian-linked disinformation may be amplifying…
  • 'Far-left' radical groups allegedly powering France protestsFox News · 2 days agoWall Street Journal reporter Matthew Dalton joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to break down the radical groups who are allegedly fueling the France protests. 'Far-left' radical groups allegedly powering France protests Wall Street Journal…
  • In pictures: France protests draw 146,000 as clashes erupt for fourth straight weekendCNBC · 42 h agoPolice used tear gas against people throwing projectiles as the main Paris march ended at Place de la Nation, per AFP. Garbage cans were set alight as protesters and police clashed in several cities, according to Le Monde. Police blocked a…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions