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France credit rating downgrade in 2026?
The odds
49%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 74% on Oct 19, 49% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 28, 4 PM ET61% → 31%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | ▼ 1 | 45¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: France
Search ›- France protests widenLargely peaceful demonstrations took place across France on Thursday, and trade unions went on strike over the cost of living. The Eiffel Tower was closed for the day. ELEANOR BEARDSLEY, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise. KELLY: Hey. So what was it…
- Hundreds of thousands protest in FranceHundreds of thousands of protestors are flooding streets across France as public workers and students join forces in a growing wave of demonstrations. They're demanding higher pay, better conditions and more support for schools. The show…
- A series of cyber attacks rattles FranceA French bank said hackers stole €100 million, following attacks on a blood bank and supermarket fridges. A French bank said hackers stole â¬100 million ($112 million), a rare heist of a mainstream lender that has sent shudders across…
- Trade unions join growing protests in FranceNPR Trade unions join growing protests in France Demonstrations continued across France Thursday, as trade unions went on strike over the cost of living. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an NPR sponsor
- France on edge amid calls for more protestsFox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot reports on nationwide protests and violent clashes in France on ‘The Faulkner Focus.’ France on edge amid calls for more protests Fox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg…
- Protestors in France start fires, clash with policeFox News Protestors in France start fires, clash with police Fox News' Jeff Paul reports from London on the widespread protests in France, where more than 600,000 people rallied on 'Black Thursday.' Fox News' Jeff Paul reports from London…
- France’s ‘Black Thursday’: A warning for AmericaFox News France’s ‘Black Thursday’: A warning for America Fox News political analyst Guy Benson warns that the massive France riots are a preview of what could happen in the United States due to uncontrolled migration, citizen anger and…
- France is on the ‘verge of collapse,' ex-Thatcher advisor warnsFox News France is on the ‘verge of collapse,' ex-Thatcher advisor warns Nile Gardiner, former foreign policy advisor to Margaret Thatcher, warns that France is turning into a ‘third-world country’ and argues the nation is on the verge of…
- France's far-left protests put socialism in the global spotlightFox News France's far-left protests put socialism in the global spotlight Fox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot and former Margaret Thatcher aide Nile Gardiner join 'America Reports' to discuss rising protests and…
- Two dead after bus crashes in France, officials sayOne child and one young adult have died after a bus crashed in eastern France, local authorities have said. The incident happened at around 07:00 local time on Friday in the town of Lent, north-east of Lyon, around 34 miles (55km) from the…
- 'Several victims' after bus crashes in France, officials sayA bus has crashed in eastern France, officials have said, with "several victims". The incident happened on Friday morning in the town of Lent, north-east of Lyon, around 34 miles (55km) from the border with Switzerland. The town's mayor…
- More than 600,000 protest in France on 'Black Thursday' #shortsFox News More than 600,000 protest in France on 'Black Thursday' #shorts Fox News' Chanley Painter reports after more than 600,000 participated in the latest France protests, leading to more than 400 arrests.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions