SettledBetween 300,000 and 450,000A day before, traders had a median of 195,570
The last odds before it closed
204,070median
✓ 150,000 or above66%▲ 4
✓ 300,000 or above23%▲ 1
450,000 or above11%▲ 1
550,000 or above9%▲ 1
700,000 or above5%▼ 1
1,000,000 or above4%
How the odds have moved
Median: 195,000 on Oct 21, 204,070 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Last odds
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ 150,000 or above
66%
4.00
✓ 300,000 or above
23%
✗ 450,000 or above
11%
✗ 550,000 or above
9%
✗ 700,000 or above
5%
✗ 1,000,000 or above
4%
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions