Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Emmanuel Macron
66%
66¢
70¢
$1.43
3.7K
Giorgia Meloni
13%
▲ 1
11¢
17¢
$5.88
2.7K
Friedrich Merz
10%
8¢
13¢
$7.69
11.0K
Donald Trump
5%
2¢
8¢
$12.50
9.3K
Andy Burnham
3%
1¢
5¢
$20.00
2.0K
Mark Carney
2%
1¢
3¢
$33.33
1.4K
Sanae Takaichi
2%
1¢
3¢
$33.33
1.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: G7 Leaders, Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni
Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Germany and Europe must build their own AI more quicklyTNW | Eu · 7 days agoThe German chancellor called digital sovereignty in AI “a truly existential question” at a conference in Berlin. German chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen, May 2026 Germany and Europe must move faster to…
Giorgia Meloni threatens to remove right to citizenship from rioting teensThe Observer · 9 days agoAutumn sale Get 60% offAutumn saleGet 60% off Sunday 1 November 2026 Teenagers born and raised in Italy to immigrant parents could be denied citizenship for offences linked to the unrest in northern cities earlier this month, under…
Ivory Coast Alassane Ouattara hosted at Élysée Palace by Emmanuel MacronAfrica Intelligence · 7 days agoAccess one article of your choice, set up unlimited personalised keyword alerts and receive the Morning Brief every day at 4:40am GMT. Enjoy unlimited access to our articles, set up personalised keyword alerts and receive the Morning Brief…
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni Is Hardening Her Calls for OrderJacobin · 11 days agoRecent protests in northern Italy draw inspiration from France but also reflect grievances over poverty wages and an out-of-touch government. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s only answer is to demonize the protests, ignoring the discontent…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions