NC-03 House winner?
86%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.86%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy14%▼ 1
Install
120th Congress: Who will be House Republican Conference Chair? (2027)
The odds
93%Lisa McClain
- Lisa McClain93%▲ 38
- Greg Steube44%▲ 32
- Erin Houchin25%▲ 4
How the odds have moved
Lisa McClain: 60% on Nov 6, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 10, 3 AM ETLisa McClain: 55% → 93%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa McClain | 93% | ▲ 38 | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 605 |
| Greg Steube | 44% | ▲ 32 | 32¢ | $3.13 | 15.00 | |
| Erin Houchin | 25% | ▲ 4 | 43¢ | $2.33 | 219 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Republican Conference Chair, Lisa McClain, Greg Steube
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions