Government spending increase in 2026

Kalshi Economy › Growth & recession Closes Apr 1, 2027 · $10.6K traded · $3K at stake · prices read 70 min ago

Embed

The odds

$483.57Bmedian
$-48B$1.25T
Median $483.57BMiddle half $412.14B – $645.39B

How the odds have moved

Median: $486.39B on Oct 7, $483.57B now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least $1 billion 98% 95¢ 100¢ 62.00
At least $50 billion 97% 95¢ 100¢ 36.00
At least $100 billion 97% 95¢ 100¢ 28.00
At least $200 billion 97% 96¢ 99¢ $1.01 817
At least $300 billion 95% 92¢ 99¢ $1.01 1.5K
At least $400 billion 79% 75¢ 84¢ $1.20 3.8K
At least $500 billion 44% 40¢ 49¢ $2.04 8.0K
At least $750 billion 11% 7¢ 15¢ $6.54 2.1K
At least $1 trillion 9% ▼ 1 6¢ 13¢ $7.69 15.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Government

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  • Intel’s stock crashes, knocking $12B from government’s stakeTechCrunch · 10 days agoFounder Summit begins Nov. 4, 9:00 a.m. ET. Get your pass savings & deals before it starts. REGISTER HERE. Intel’s stock suffered one of its worst days ever on Friday, crashing around 28% after the chip giant reported a…
  • Sea Link cable project approved by governmentBBC News · 10 days agoA major new undersea electricity cable linking Kent and Suffolk has been approved by the government. The Sea Link project will help carry electricity generated by offshore wind farms, interconnectors and nuclear power stations to…
  • Government warned council over 'unlawful' housing voteBBC News · 10 days agoThe government warned a local authority in Essex hours before a vote that it would consider legal action if it withdrew plans for about 28,000 new homes. The Conservative-led Basildon Borough Council has been directed by government to…
  • Major anti-government protests sweep across ItalyCNN · 10 days agoFarmers dumped manure on the streets of Turin on Friday as mass demonstrations unfurled across more than 50 cities in Italy. Fired up by a wave of similar protests elsewhere in Europe, tens of thousands of Italians took to the streets to…
  • Martin Lewis explains government's £100 energy paymentbbc.com · 12 days agoUp to 20 million households in England will get a £100 payment to help with their energy bills this winter, Chancellor John Healey has announced in his Budget. Martin Lewis explains government's £100 energy payment
  • Court backs Scottish government appeal over Sturgeon inquiry evidenceBBC News · 10 days agoA court has upheld a Scottish government appeal in a row over documents related to an inquiry into Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the Alex Salmond affair. The Scottish Information Commissioner had ordered ministers to publish papers from…
  • Government withdraws plans for city expansionBBC News · 11 days agoThe government has withdrawn a controversial plan to expand Leicester's political boundary. On Thursday, ministers said previous proposals to create a greater Leicester council, absorbing towns and villages currently outside the city…
  • Conservatives challenge government estate donationBBC News · 12 days agoLocal Conservatives have challenged the government's £1.9m donation to help conservation groups buy a vast upland estate. The Wildlife Trusts and Northumberland Wildlife Trust are raising £30m to acquire the 9,500-acre Rothbury Estate in…
  • Syrian government forces enter northern towns after Kurdish fighters withdrawCBS News · 10 days agoJanuary 17, 2026 / 6:36 AM EST / CBS/AP Syrian government forces entered two northern towns Saturday morning after the command of Kurdish-led fighters said it would evacuate the area in an apparent move to avoid conflict. An Associated…
  • UK government’s obesity plan ‘doomed to fail’, MPs warnthe Guardian · 11 days agoCross-party committee says ‘moonshot’ vow to end obesity epidemic in a decade will fail without personal leadership from PM The UK government’s promise to reverse rising obesity rates in the next decade is “doomed to fail” without a major…
  • What are the government's options for reducing welfare spending?BBC News · 11 days agoChancellor John Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham have both spoken of their desire for the benefits bill to come down, but the government has not yet laid out a timetable for any reductions. Their political opponents have criticised…
  • The ‘breathing space budget’ – breathing space for the government, that isthe Guardian · 11 days agoJohn Healey aced the morning-after media round because his Martin Lewis measures left nothing to challenge him on Maybe it had been one of the greatest acts of political genius after all. The day after the budget is usually the moment when…

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