Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $631 today · $526K traded · $46.7K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

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The odds

14%Before January 20, 2029
  • Before January 20, 202914%▲ 2
  • Before 20272%

How the odds have moved

Before January 20, 2029: 17% on Oct 20, 14% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 6, 11 PM ETBefore January 20, 2029: 7% → 14%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Nov 3, 11 PM ETBefore January 20, 2029: 14% → 8%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before January 20, 2029 14% ▲ 2 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 3.6M
Before 2027 2% 1¢ 2¢ $55.56 1.7M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Greenland

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  • Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 2
  • Before Feb 1, 202713%▲ 2
13 more
  • Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 3
  • Before Apr 1, 202723%▼ 2
  • Before May 1, 202725%▼ 2
  • Before Jun 1, 202735%▲ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202739%
  • Before Aug 1, 202740%▼ 1
  • Before Sep 1, 202742%▼ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202746%
  • Before Nov 1, 202749%
  • Before Dec 1, 202752%▲ 3
  • Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202866%▲ 5
  • Before Jan 1, 202970%
KalshiFor Mar 17 · $35.6K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions