Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)
25.2median
1060
Median 25.2Middle half 20.9 – 29.4
Install
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8)
The odds
22.8median
1060
Median 22.8Middle half 21.1 – 25.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 25.4 on Oct 31, 22.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 96.8K | |
| Above 20 | 91% | ▲ 14 | 90¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 45.2K |
| Above 23 | 48% | ▲ 14 | 47¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 23.3K |
| Above 25 | 31% | ▲ 8 | 30¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 23.9K |
| Above 27 | 10% | ▲ 2 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 41.9K |
| Above 30 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 54.9K | |
| Above 35 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 27.2K | |
| Above 40 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 56.1K | ||
| Above 50 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 17.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Search ›- Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment in the WH and the ongoing tensions in Iran. Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz 'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment…
- Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iran says 2-day fast-track plan remains on tableIran confirms its 2-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table, contingent on the US meeting Tehran's terms. - Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iran says 2-day fast-track plan remains on table Iran confirms its 2-day…
- US and Iran Consider $8 Billion Deal to Reopen Strait of HormuzQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the…
- Rubio Rips Iran’s ‘Outrageous’ Demands To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz As Trump Meets Key MediatorPresident Donald Trump is meeting with Qatar’s prime minister on Monday — and what happens between the two leaders could help decide whether the war with Iran winds down or picks back up. Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin…
- Accepting Iran’s Demands Would Restore Security In Strait Of Hormuz: BaqaeiMian Nadeem Published November 09, 2026 | 03:18 PM In case of aggression by the enemy, a crushing response will be given, and a navigation aid system south of the Strait of Hormuz has been destroyed—the Revolutionary Guards. He said Iran…
- Iran-US Talks: Tehran Keeps 2-Day Strait Of Hormuz Reopening Plan On Table Amid Rising Diplomatic PressureTehran, Nov 9: Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday the country's two-day plan for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still on the table. "Our position regarding the negotiations is completely clear and…
- IRGC Says Tanker Transit Halted in Southern Strait of HormuzNumber of Vendors seeking consent or relying on legitimate interest: 182 These means of processing can be used solely in pursuit of one or several purposes for which you are given a choice in this notice. Number of Vendors seeking consent…
- Iran says 7 tankers damaged in Strait of HormuzIran’s state television reported on Thursday that seven oil tankers were either struck by attacks or hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, possibly the largest single-day number of vessels damaged in the waterway since the…
- Iran says navigational systems destroyed in southern Strait of HormuzIranian state media on Monday reported that navigational aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz had been destroyed, adding that no unauthorised vessels had crossed the maritime route overnight. The information was attributed to an…
- US disables bulk carrier as tanker attacks continue near Strait of HormuzSeveral tankers have been targeted near the Strait of Hormuz, while US forces have disabled a bulk carrier in the Gulf of Oman amid continued regional tensions and naval blockade enforcement. According to the Joint Maritime Information…
- Oil prices today: Brent crude, WTI fall as Trump rules out fresh Iran strikes amid Strait of Hormuz concernsOil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump indicated that he was unlikely to order fresh military strikes against Iran as long as talks to end the conflict continued. However, attacks on ships in and around the Strait of…
- Iran Claims 2 Oil Tankers Catch Fire After Hitting Naval Mines In Strait Of HormuzTwo oil tankers burst into flames after running into naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz early on November 8, 2026, according to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In a statement on its outlet Sepah News, the IRGC Navy said…
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
10%chance▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions