NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy15%
Install
NC-11 House winner? (2026)
Settled Jamie AgerA day before, traders gave it 88%.
The last odds before it closed
>99%Jamie Ager
- ✓ Jamie Ager>99%▲ 12
- Jennifer Balkcom<1%▼ 12
How the odds have moved
Jamie Ager: 79% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 8 PM ETJamie Ager: 88% → >99%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Jamie Ager | >99% | 422.5K | ||||
| ✗ Jennifer Balkcom | <1% | 447.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NC- House, Jamie Ager, Jennifer Balkcom
Search ›- Drag queens issue cease and desist: AI deepfake ad targets North Carolina House candidate Jamie AgerA political ad using artificial intelligence-generated imagery to depict North Carolina Democratic House candidate Jamie Ager at a barn dance with drag queens has drawn criticism, legal threats, and calls for new legislation. We're a week…
- AI-generated GOP ad targeting Jamie Ager sparks controversyA new campaign ad targeting Jamie Ager, the Democratic candidate in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, has sparked controversy over its apparent use of artificial intelligence (AI), its portrayal of a 2019 festival at Ager’s…
- Republicans Defend AI Drag Queen Attack Ad Amid BacklashOct 29, 2026 at 02:48 PM EDT Newsweek understands the ad was paid for by the NRCC and approved by Republican candidate Jennifer Balkcom. It uses AI to depict Ager dancing with a likeness of Asheville drag performer Nova at a barn dance…
- Drag ‘Nun’ Sister Domina Trix Threatens Legal Action over AI Ad Linking Performer to Family-Friendly Festival at NC Dem Jamie Ager’s FarmA new political advertisement targeting North Carolina Democrat U.S. congressional candidate Jamie Ager over a family-friendly festival featuring drag performers at his family’s farm has prompted backlash from LGBTQ activists, including a…
- NC-11 Drag Queens Come After GOP After Ad Shows Jamie Ager Hosted Event With 'Beer City Sisters'The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dropped a new ad targeting Democrat Jamie Ager, who is running for the House in North Carolina's 11th District. That ad highlights how Ager hosted a "kid-friendly" festival at his farm…
- Drag queens issue cease and desist to GOP candidate over deepfaked attack adThe ad, authorized by North Carolina Republican Jennifer Balkcom, uses AI to depict her opponent Jamie Ager dancing with drag queens. This story originally appeared on Them.A group of North Carolina drag queens have issued cease-and-desist…
- PACs cancel millions in TV ads for North Carolina races as Election Day approachesNORTH CAROLINA (WLOS) — With Election Day just days away, political action committees (PACs) are canceling millions of dollars in television advertising across North Carolina, shifting money away from some congressional races and toward…
- Op-ed: Republicans want voters afraid of transgender people. They should fear voters insteadA decisive Democratic victory may finally tell the GOP that their reliance on their decades-long cruelty is a losing strategy, writes John Casey A protester yells and makes an obscene gesture at U.S. President Donald Trump as he speaks…
- Trans woman says ICE agents released her after confirming she’d had bottom surgeryClara Tan says immigration agents tackled her outside a New York airport and detained her for about 18 hours. Immigration and Customs Enforcement stand guard outside of their NY field office on September 01, 2026, in New York City. The ad…
- Georgia librarian sues over trans book retaliatory firingClara Tan says immigration agents tackled her outside a New York airport and detained her for about 18 hours. The ad, authorized by North Carolina Republican Jennifer Balkcom, uses AI to depict her opponent Jamie Ager dancing with drag…
- WATCH: Democrats enraged by political ad using A.I. to show candidate ‘dancing’ with drag queensDemocrats in North Carolina, and some of their local drag queens, are enraged over a political ad that used super intelligence to show the party’s candidate for Congress dancing with drag queens. — Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) October…
- Hurricane Helene haunts the midterms in North Carolina“Well, we’re not weather people,” Moody said with a hoarse laugh, “but these floods that keep coming. They’re supposed to be 500 year floods. You’re like, ‘What is going on?’” Two years after the storm, recovery remains far from complete…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions