NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy15%
Install
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
The odds
14.83%median
0%18%
Median 14.83%Middle half 14.2% – 15.45%
How the odds have moved
Median: 9.29% on Oct 20, 14.83% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, ≥2% | 100% | 99¢ | 29.7K | |||
| Democrats, ≥4% | 100% | 99¢ | 8.2K | |||
| Democrats, ≥6% | 100% | 99¢ | 19.6K | |||
| Democrats, ≥8% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 35.0K | ||
| Democrats, ≥10% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 26.4K | ||
| Democrats, ≥11% | 98% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | $1.02 | 1.8K | |
| Democrats, ≥12% | 98% | 97¢ | $1.02 | 8.6K | ||
| Democrats, ≥14% | 83% | ▼ 1 | 80¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 10.0K |
| Democrats, ≥16% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 946 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms, House, Directional
Search ›- Florida U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News A video that appears to show a man hitting a teenager at a New Hampshire polling place has received more than 3 million views on X and drawn condemnation from the local mayor In the 40-second video, an older man angrily berates a…
- Florida House District 13 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Susan Collins' remarkable run as the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history may be in jeopardy as she loses support among young voters and independents, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll Earlier in…
- Indiana House District 5 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Victoria Spartz would need to win 73.6% of the remaining vote to catch or overtake J.D. Ford, who leads. The Indiana House District 5 race has shifted 20.44 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See…
- Democrats poised to control US House, Senate in 2026 midtermsCBS News: America Decides: Election 2026 CBS News Bay Area: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Colorado: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Los Angeles: Voters Decide CBS News Minnesota: Voters…
- California House District 28 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsPeggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, is projected to win the state's Senate race with solid support from 96% of Democrats, as well as significant Peggy Flanagan, Minnesotaâs lieutenant governor, is projected to win the…
- New York House District 11 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News New York House District 11 General Election Results 2026 House 11 County Results The New York House District 11 race has shifted 12.17 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county…
- North Carolina House District 5 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Chuck Hubbard would need to win 54% of the remaining vote to catch or overtake Virginia Foxx, who leads. The North Carolina House District 5 race has shifted 16.98 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential…
- Washington U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News The Justice Department plans to send a record number of election monitors to polling places in all 50 states for today's midterm elections While Democratic and Republican administrations have sent federal workers to observe…
- Arizona U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Arizona House Results 2026 Democrats are looking to build on their recent gains in this once-solid red seat to flip a handful of seats currently held by Republicans. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Republican former NFL kicker…
- Maine U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Maine House Results 2026 The Pine Tree State’s 2nd Congressional District is the state’s most competitive race, and Republicans are hopeful they can flip the red-leaning district now that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring…
- Texas U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Texas House Results 2026 Republican lawmakers here kicked off the redistricting wildfire when they redrew the map with the hope of flipping up to five Democratic held seats. But there are a slew of competitive races across the…
- Colorado U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News The Justice Department plans to send a record number of election monitors to polling places in all 50 states for today's midterm elections While Democratic and Republican administrations have sent federal workers to observe…
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
250.5median
207252
Median 250.5Middle half 249.7 – 251.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions