CA-23 House winner?
97%Jay Obernolte
- Jay Obernolte97%
- Tessa Lynn Hodge2%▼ 1
Install
AL-02 House winner?
Settled Shomari FiguresA day before, traders gave it 49%.
The last odds before it closed
99%Shomari Figures
- ✓ Shomari Figures99%▲ 49
- Rhett Marques1%▼ 50
How the odds have moved
Shomari Figures: 27% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 10 PM ETShomari Figures: 49% → 99%
- Oct 28, 11 PM ETShomari Figures: 33% → 42%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Shomari Figures | 99% | 341.3K | ||||
| ✗ Rhett Marques | 1% | 310.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AL- House, Shomari Figures, Rhett Marques
Search ›- Opinion Shomari Figures' victory was great, but let's stop the cheatingThe attempts to steal seats through gerrymandering were a flop. Let's end gerrymandering and restore some election integrity. People don’t like cheaters. It’s a fact of life. They don’t like it in sports. They don’t like it in business…
- Shomari Figures defeats Rhett Marques in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional DistrictShomari Figures defeated Rhett Marques Tuesday in Alabama’s closely watched 2nd Congressional District election, keeping the seat in Democratic control. Figures first won election to Congress in 2024 under a court-ordered map that gave…
- Republicans redrew his district. Here’s why Shomari Figures won anyway.WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures decisively won Tuesday in a district redrawn to favor Republicans, and the national “blue tsunami” was only part of what carried the congressman to victory. Emerging from a crowd of supporters on…
- Shomari Figures defeats Rhett Marques in 2nd District race, giving Democrats a major winDemocratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures won reelection Tuesday night in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, which Republicans redrew to their advantage this year. Figures’ win in a district that President Donald Trump would have won by 14…
- Shomari Figures Wins Re-Election in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District Amid National Redistricting BattleBy Cody D. Short | For the Birmingham Times Representative Shomari Figures has secured re-election in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, defeating Republican challenger and state Representative Rhett Marques with nearly 54% of the vote…
- Shomari Figures delivers Alabama District 2 victory speechWSFA Shomari Figures delivers Alabama District 2 victory speech Barry Moore to succeed Tommy Tuberville in Senate Figures projected winner of U.S. House District 2 Rhett Marques concedes U.S. House District 2 race
- Democrat Shomari Figures reelected to Alabama's District 2 seatIncumbent Democrat Shomari Figures defeated Republican Rhett Marques in the Nov. 3 midterm elections for Alabama’s Congressional District 2 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The race for District 2, a nearly 40% Black district…
- CAMPAIGN 2026: Republican Rhett Marques concedes defeat in the U.S. House District 2 raceRepublican Rhett Marques has conceded defeat to Democratic Congressman Shomari Figures in the hotly-contested U.S. House District 2 race. WAKA Action 8 News CAMPAIGN 2026: Republican Rhett Marques concedes defeat in the U.S. House District…
- Alabama Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures on voter turnoutCentral Oregon Daily Alabama Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures discusses how redistricting and newly drawn district lines played a role in voter turnout and his victory. - In brief: Central Oregon and major statewide results from Tuesday's…
- Congressman Shomari Figures outlines priorities after winning second termFOX10 News Congressman Shomari Figures outlines priorities after winning second term Republican Jerry Carl wins Alabama’s U.S. House District 1 seat Tuberville speaks to supporters after winning governor's race Voters approve all 4 Alabama…
- Shomari Figures wins reelection in Alabama’s 2nd District congressional race despite redistrictingRep. Shomari Figures, who has served in the seat since 2024, said he was a “loss for words,” after managing to hold onto the seat. Despite the GOP’s best redistricting efforts, Rep. Shomari Figures kept a firm grasp on his congressional…
- Democrat Shomari Figures Wins Reelection to U.S. House in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional DistrictFigures defeated Republican Rhett Marques. Rep. Shomari Figures, an attorney and former Obama administration staffer, secured a second term in the southern Alabama district despite a redrawing of its boundaries to favor Republicans. (Vasha…
Related markets
All house ›CO-04 House winner?
>99%Eileen Laubacher
- Eileen Laubacher>99%▲ 1
- Lauren Boebert<1%
FL-07 House winner?
99%Ryan Elijah
- Ryan Elijah99%
- Bale Dalton1%
FL-09 House winner?
>99%Darren Soto
- Darren Soto>99%
- Dan Green<1%▼ 1
FL-27 House winner?
96%Maria Elvira Salazar
- Maria Elvira Salazar96%▼ 1
- Eliott Rodriguez4%▲ 2
LA-05 House winner?
92%Republican party
- Republican party92%▼ 3
- Democratic party8%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions