CA-23 House winner?
98%Jay Obernolte
- Jay Obernolte98%▲ 1
- Tessa Lynn Hodge2%▼ 1
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MN-01 House winner?
The odds
96%Jake Johnson
- Jake Johnson96%
- Brad Finstad4%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Jake Johnson: 24% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETJake Johnson: 9% → 94%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 96% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.04 | 421.0K | |
| Brad Finstad | 4% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | 335.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MN- House, Jake Johnson, Brad Finstad
Search ›- Democrat Jake Johnson leads over Republican Brad Finstad in Minnesota's 1st Congressional DistrictWINONA, Minn. (WKBT) â With just over 300 votes separating the candidates for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Jake Johnson appears poised to unseat incumbent Republican Brad Finstad. News 8+ 24/7 Live Stream Morning News…
- Jake Johnson declares victory in Minnesota’s 1st District race against Brad Finstad; recount likelySouthern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District race is likely headed to a recount after an extremely narrow vote margin as of Wednesday morning. Democratic candidate Jake Johnson has claimed victory as he currently leads Incumbent Rep…
- Jake Johnson sneaks past Brad Finstad in an apparent upset in Minnesota’s southern congressional districtJake Johnson appears to have ridden a blue wave into Congress, upsetting incumbent Brad Finstad in a district once seen as safely Republican, though the razor-thin margin will trigger a recount. The Rochester teacher-turned-Democratic…
- Jake Johnson Wins First Congressional District RaceST. PAUL — Jake Johnson won the race to represent Minnesota’s First Congressional District. Congressman-elect Jake Johnson spent the last two years building a grassroots campaign to unseat a sitting member of Congress in a district Donald…
- Jake Johnson is sent to congress after a tight raceJake Johnson took the lead later into the race with just a few hundred more votes. ROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Jake Johnson has been selected by voters to be their representative in Minnesota’s first congressional district. Johnson won the…
- Jake Johnson campaign remains ‘cautiously optimistic’ as MN-01 results extend into WednesdayROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – The campaign for Democratic-Farmer-Labor challenger Jake Johnson closed out its election night watch party just before midnight Tuesday without a declared winner in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District race…
- Jake Johnson supporters hope for an upset in Minnesota's 1st DistrictHundreds of supporters gathered in Rochester to celebrate the conclusion of Jake Johnson’s campaign. He’s the political newcomer who is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Brad Finstad in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, which…
- MN House 2A Candidates Duran, Olson Discuss Election Before Results Come InNov 3, 2026 | By: Lakeland News MN House 2A Candidates Duran, Olson Discuss Election Before Results Come In Lakeland News is member supported content, please consider supporting Lakeland PBS today.
- Pete Buttigieg campaigns for Jake Johnson in RochesterROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg campaigned for Jake Johnson, the DFL candidate for Minnesota’s First Congressional District, in Rochester on Sunday. The visit was part of a Vikings watch party…
- Conway, Daisane election results in St. Cloud-area MN House 14A raceVoters in Minnesota House District 14A on Nov. 3 go to polls to choose between Republican candidate Mike Conway and Democratic candidate Abdi Daisane to represent them in the state legislature. House District 14A, currently represented by…
- Other MN House Results: Newcomers Schuette and Lewis Win ElectionVoters in the CCX Media coverage area largely returned incumbent members of the Minnesota House of Representatives to their respective seats in the Nov. 3 election. Kyrstin Schuette, a DFLer and a first-time candidate, won election over…
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District race remains a toss-up, CBS News reportsNovember 4, 2026 / 7:17 AM CST / CBS Minnesota Minnesota's 1st Congressional District remains a toss-up Wednesday morning, with incumbent Republican Rep. Brad Finstad facing Democratic challenger Jake Johnson, CBS News projects. As of 7…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions