CA-23 House winner?
97%Jay Obernolte
- Jay Obernolte97%
- Tessa Lynn Hodge3%
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TN-04 House winner?
The odds
98%Victoria Broderick
- Victoria Broderick98%▲ 2
- Scott DesJarlais2%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Victoria Broderick: 1% on Oct 20, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETVictoria Broderick: 82% → 95%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Broderick | 98% | ▲ 2 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 107.5K |
| Scott DesJarlais | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 83.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: TN- House, Victoria Broderick, Scott DesJarlais
Search ›- Meet Victoria Broderick, Nashville and Tennessee’s Unexpected New Democratic Representative in CongressThroughout the 2026 campaign in Tennessee, political groups, donors and the media largely focused their attention on the 5th and 9th congressional districts, two redrawn seats that helped carve up Memphis and stretched all the way to…
- Victoria Broderick stuns GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais in 4th Congressional DistrictHow did Victoria Broderick’s stunning win feel? “Pure joy.” Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais lost his bid for a ninth term representing Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District in a shocking upset by Democratic nominee Broderick. With 100%…
- Victoria Broderick upsets Scott DesJarlais in District 4How did Victoria Broderick’s stunning win feel? “Pure joy.” Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais lost his bid for a ninth term representing Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District in a shocking upset by Democratic nominee Broderick. With 100…
- ‘Wait, what?’: the underdog Democrats who won their midterm races against all oddsFrom North Carolina to Arizona, Democrats with almost no public profile were stunned at their election triumphs One candidate had dropped out in September. One had no campaign staff. One was a 19-year-old and halfway through the fall…
- DECISION 2026: Victoria Broderick (D) wins Tennessee U.S. House Dist. 4UPDATE: Democrat Victoria Broderick has unseated incumbent Scott DesJarlais in the U.S. House of Representatives District 4, according to the Tennessee Secretary of State’s Office. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, Broderick…
- How Democrat Victoria Broderick overcame redistricting to become one of Tennessee’s new U.S. RepresentativesNASHVILLE, Tenn. (WSMV) - Democrat Victoria Broderick will win the race to represent Tennessee’s Fourth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to unofficial vote totals reported by the Tennessee Secretary of…
- House Race Separated By 99 Votes Shows Why ‘Rare’ Noncitizen Voting Does MatterApproximately 99 votes separate the candidates in one North Carolina congressional race, showing exactly why noncitizen voting could potentially have a major impact on U.S. elections. The narrow North Carolina race is one of many…
- ‘A complete surprise’: A Tennessee GOP stronghold turns on the partyUS President Donald Trump and US Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) hug during a Republican campaign rally at F&M Bank Arena in Clarksville, Tennessee, US, October 10, 2026. REUTERS/Eric Lee The top Tennessee Republican received nearly 1…
- 'Shock': Democrat flips deep-red House seat without airing a single TV ad as longtime Republican goes downFox News contributor Guy Benson breaks down the GOP midterm losses, including Vice President JD Vance's social media post on the impact of the Iran conflict on voters. Two years after losing to Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais by 43…
- Rutherford voters lean Democrat in governor, US Senate, other officesA 16-year Republican dominance in Rutherford County shifted to Democrats Nov. 3 for federal and state offices. Rutherford voters favored Democrats for governor, three seats in Congress, including one held by Republican incumbent U.S. Rep…
- Tennessee roundup: Victoria Broderick turns Tennessee’s 4th District blueVictoria Broderick looks to have flipped Tennesseeu2019s 4th Congressional District, defeating eight-term Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais by just 280 votes. Broderick narrowly won with 48.87 percent of the vote (95,585 votes)…
- Victoria Broderick Flips 4th Congressional District BlueVictoria Broderick, October 2026 In a shocking upset, Democratic tech support professional Victoria Broderick has narrowly defeated longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions