NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%
- Greg Murphy16%
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How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?
The odds
195.2median
180260
Median 195.2Middle half 186.4 – 209.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 207.5 on Oct 31, 195.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185 | 81% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 250 |
| At least 190 | 61% | ▲ 2 | 59¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 751 |
| At least 195 | 51% | 50¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 1.1K | |
| At least 200 | 39% | ▲ 2 | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 517 |
| At least 205 | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 499 | |
| At least 210 | 25% | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 482 | |
| At least 215 | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 400 | |
| At least 218 | 16% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| At least 220 | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| At least 225 | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| At least 230 | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 235 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| At least 240 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| At least 245 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| At least 250 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| At least 255 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House
Search ›- Mike Johnson To Step Down From House Republican LeadershipMidterm Elections: Mike Johnson To Step Down From House Republican Leadership After Democrats’ Blowout Victories Deadline Services to share this page. House Speaker Mike Johnson will not stay on as Republican leader when Democrats take…
- Mike Johnson Makes Major Announcement After Republicans Lose HouseNov 04, 2026 at 10:16 AM EST Nov 04, 2026 at 10:47 AM EST House Speaker Mike Johnson is giving up his position atop the House GOP after Republicans were swept from power in Tuesday’s midterms, bringing his three-year tenure as the party’s…
- Johnson out as House Republican leader after GOP routThe Louisiana Republican privately told staff he is not planning on running for leadership roles after the midterms. House Speaker Mike Johnson privately told staff he is not planning on running for minority leader or any other leadership…
- Blue wave leaves just 1 New Jersey Republican in the HouseNovember 4, 2026 / 5:38 PM EST / CBS New York In New Jersey, only one Republican was able to keep his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The 11 other representatives and two senators are all Democrats. Wednesday, a political…
- Mike Johnson will step aside as top House Republican next CongressHouse Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks with reporters alongside President Trump on Nov. 1, 2026, at Dubuque Regional Airport in Dubuque, Iowa. Jacquelyn Martin/AP hide caption Midterms coverage: Live results | Takeaways | Stories around…
- Redistricting efforts blow up in Republicans' faces amid historic House lossesFox News provides live coverage of the 2026 midterm election results as the Democratic Party regained control of both congressional chambers. Republicans' gambit to stave off election losses by changing congressional maps backfired in most…
- Zack Mullock ousts Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew in N.J. House raceRepublican U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew has conceded to Democratic Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock in the race to represent New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District. CBS News Philadelphia's Ryan Hughes spoke with Mullock on Wednesday after the…
- Speaker Mike Johnson Reacts After Republicans Lose Control of the HouseNewsweek - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News The Most Important Election of Our Lives, Until the Next One w/ Astead Herndon Midterm Election Night, Senate Final Polls, Supreme Court…
- Johnson vows Republicans will ‘take back the House’ in 2028Fox News Johnson vows Republicans will ‘take back the House’ in 2028 House Speaker Mike Johnson says Republicans will “double down” after the election, calling the fight against what he described as a “socialist movement” far from over.
- Democratic women surge past 100 House seats as Republican women lose groundThe Washington Post Voters also elected the country’s first Black and first Native American female governors as women won a record number of governorships. Women will lead more states as governors and represent more congressional districts…
- House Speaker Mike Johnson will not stay on as Republican leader after GOP lossesBREAKING: Former ‘Diddy’ prosecutor will lead investigation into Cornell alleged sexual assault, N.Y. Attorney General Letitia James announces WASHINGTON — A day after Democrats won the House majority, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told his…
- House Republican David Valadao, who voted for Trump's impeachment, loses reelection in CaliforniaUpdated on: November 4, 2026 / 2:42 PM EST / CBS News Washington — GOP Rep. David Valadao lost his reelection bid in California's 22nd District, CBS News projected. Valadao's loss against Democrat Randy Villegas makes him the last of the…
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250.5median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions