Who will a House committee vote to subpoena before 2028?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $345 today · $3.5K traded · $3.5K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

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The odds

74%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth74%▲ 1
  • Jared Kushner72%▲ 4
  • Donald Trump Jr.69%▼ 1
  • Stephen Miller69%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche61%▲ 2
  • Kash Patel60%▲ 10
  • Elon Musk58%▲ 1
  • Howard Lutnick53%▲ 8
  • Tom Homan49%▲ 1
  • Pam Bondi48%▲ 2
  • Kristi Noem47%▲ 1
  • Steve Witkoff37%▲ 5
6 more
  • Corey Lewandowski32%▲ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.32%▼ 1
  • Russ Vought26%
  • Eric Trump21%▲ 2
  • Scott Bessent12%▼ 1
  • JD Vance7%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Pete Hegseth: 42% on Nov 6, 74% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 8, 11 PM ETPete Hegseth: 83% → 74%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Pete Hegseth 74% ▲ 1 70¢ 78¢ $1.28 700
Jared Kushner 72% ▲ 4 70¢ 74¢ $1.35 451
Donald Trump Jr. 69% ▼ 1 64¢ 74¢ $1.35 719
Stephen Miller 69% ▼ 1 64¢ 73¢ $1.37 690
Todd Blanche 61% ▲ 2 57¢ 65¢ $1.54 454
Kash Patel 60% ▲ 10 56¢ 64¢ $1.56 300
Elon Musk 58% ▲ 1 54¢ 62¢ $1.61 824
Howard Lutnick 53% ▲ 8 48¢ 58¢ $1.72 414
Tom Homan 49% ▲ 1 44¢ 53¢ $1.89 222
Pam Bondi 48% ▲ 2 44¢ 51¢ $1.96 264
Kristi Noem 47% ▲ 1 42¢ 51¢ $1.96 271
Steve Witkoff 37% ▲ 5 32¢ 41¢ $2.44 176
Corey Lewandowski 32% ▲ 1 27¢ 36¢ $2.78 17.00
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32% ▼ 1 27¢ 36¢ $2.78 168
Russ Vought 26% 21¢ 30¢ $3.33 12.00
Eric Trump 21% ▲ 2 16¢ 25¢ $4.00 46.00
Scott Bessent 12% ▼ 1 7¢ 17¢ $5.88 7.00
JD Vance 7% ▲ 1 2¢ 11¢ $9.09 19.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: House, Pete Hegseth, Jared Kushner

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions