Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
49%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%49%
- Falls to 6.5%9%
- Falls to 6.25%5%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
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US housing starts for October (October 2026)
The odds
1.28median
11.45
Median 1.28Middle half 1.22 – 1.35
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.25 on Oct 21, 1.28 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.050M | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 24.00 | |
| Above 1.100M | 96% | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 200 | |
| Above 1.150M | 93% | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 96.00 | |
| Above 1.200M | 83% | 78¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | ||
| Above 1.250M | 66% | 61¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 453 | |
| Above 1.300M | 43% | 38¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 1.8K | |
| Above 1.350M | 24% | 19¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.1K | |
| Above 1.400M | 12% | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 11.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All housing ›US existing home sales for October (October 2026)
3.80median
3.504.40
Median 3.80Middle half 3.73 – 3.89
US existing home · Median sales price in October (October 2026)
$416,410median
$390,000$440,000
Median $416,410Middle half $412,500 – $419,615
NYC median asking rent in December 2026
$3,999median
$3,700$4,600
Median $3,999Middle half $3,933 – $4,088
US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Nov 11, 2026)
1%median
-12%12%
Median 1%Middle half -1.94% – 4.09%
US new home · Sales in October (October 2026)
670,370median
580,000760,000
Median 670,370Middle half 632,000 – 708,000
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions