How many major Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Central Pacific in 2026)
9%Above 3
- Above 39%▼ 1
Install
How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Central Pacific in 2026)
The odds
28%Above 5
- Above 528%▼ 12
How the odds have moved
Above 5: 28% on Oct 20, 28% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 8, 9 PM ETAbove 5: 58% → 40%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 4, 8 PM ETAbove 5: 13% → 46%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETAbove 5: 26% → 38%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 1 | 99% | $1.01 | 346 | |||
| ✓ Above 2 | 98% | $1.02 | 1.9K | |||
| ✓ Above 3 | 98% | $1.02 | 1.4K | |||
| ✓ Above 4 | 94% | $1.06 | 2.4K | |||
| Above 5 | 28% | ▼ 12 | 24¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Central Pacific
Search ›- Pena becomes first November tropical storm to form in Central Pacific since 1982 amid intensifying El NiñoTropical Storm Pena formed in the Central Pacific well south of Hawaii. Pena could strengthen into the basin's 14th hurricane of the year. El Niño has fueled a hyperactive Pacific hurricane season. There are some signals that El Niño could…
- WEATHER BLOG: Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Central PacificKNWA/KFTA — Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Central Pacific, making it the 4th storm to do so there. After a quiet week following Major Hurricane Vance’s dissipation, Pena slowly developed and organized into a tropical storm, initially…
- Tropical Storm Pena begins passing well south of HawaiiSunday, November 8, 2026 84° Today's Paper The five-day forecast map for Tropical Storm Pena as of this morning Tropical Storm Pena was passing about 500 miles south of Hawaii island today. Tropical Storm Pena has started its pass far…
- Tropical Storm Pena forms well southeast of Hawaii, no threat to landThe National Hurricane Center said Pena should remain on a track well south of the Hawaiian Islands. HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - After a lull of tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific, a new tropical storm has formed well…
- Pena: First Central Pacific November Storm Since 1982Tropical Storm Pena formed about 650 miles southeast of Hawaiʻi, becoming the Central Pacific’s first November tropical storm since 1982; forecasters expect it to track well south of the islands, bringing no land or rainfall impacts…
- Tropical Storm Pena forms southeast of Hawaii, poses no threat to landPublished 12:05 am Saturday, November 7, 2026 The 5-day track of Tropical Storm Pena is shown. Tropical Storm Pena formed today about 650 miles southeast of the Big Island, but poses no threat to land. As of 11 a.m. today, the storm was…
- Tropical Storm Pena Forms South of Hawaii in PacificTropical Storm Pena has formed in the Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, adding to the region's active storm season. Forecasters are tracking its path as it moves over open water. At this stage, the storm is not expected to make a direct…
- Tropical storm develops east of Northern Luzon, remains outside PARA tropical depression being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has intensified into a tropical storm, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Saturday. In its 8 a.m. update on November 7, PAGASA said the weather…
- Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Pacific Ocean south of HawaiiThe U.S. National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Pena has formed in the Pacific Ocean. Pena was centered Friday well south of the Hawaiian islands. A hurricane center advisory says the storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It…
- Tropical Storm Pena forms far southeast of Hawaiʻi, no threat to landHONOLULU (Island News) -- Tropical Storm Pena has formed well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, but forecasters say the storm poses no threat to land. As of 11 a.m. Friday, Pena was located about 650 miles southeast of South Point on…
- Tropical Storm Pena has formed in the Pacific Ocean, south of the Hawaiian islandsJet nosedives and erupts into fireball near busy roadway in South Florida. All 9 on board died - Iran's leader says response to attack would have no 'geographic limits,' and other Mideast news - Sullivan, Peltola project confidence while…
- Additional Outages Possible As Tropical Storm Moke Arrives, Hawaiian Electric SaysHAWAIIAN ELECTRIC: * RESTORED POWER TO APPROXIMATELY 3,200 HAWAII ISLAND CUSTOMERS SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING * SAYS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, ABOUT 6,460 CUSTOMERS REMAIN WITHOUT... Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Additional Outages Possible…
Related markets
All hurricanes & storms ›How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
14%Above 8
- Above 814%▼ 2
How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
14%Above 10
914
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Atlantic this year? (Atlantic in 2026)
10%Kyle
- Kyle10%▲ 1
- Fay3%▲ 1
- Leah2%▼ 1
14 more
- Marco1%
- Dolly1%
- Edouard1%
- Gonzalo1%
- Hanna1%▼ 1
- Josephine1%
- Nana1%
- Omar1%
- Paulette1%▼ 1
- Rene1%▼ 1
- Sally1%
- Teddy1%
- Vicky1%
- Wilfred1%
Atlantic Tropical Storms (Dec 2026)
9.58median
818
Median 9.58Middle half 9.20 – 9.95
How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
20.7median
1828
Median 20.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions