The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ Above 16
99%
$1.01
364
✓ Above 17
99%
$1.01
275
✓ Above 18
99%
▼ 1
$1.01
1.6K
✓ Above 19
97%
▼ 2
$1.03
1.6K
Above 20
74%
▼ 1
76¢
91¢
$1.10
906
Above 22
10%
▼ 3
7¢
12¢
$8.33
798
Above 24
3%
▼ 2
1¢
5¢
$20.00
328
Above 26
3%
1¢
5¢
$20.00
303
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Pena weakens far south of HawaiiHonolulu Star-Advertiser · 11 h agoMonday, November 9, 2026 75° Today's Paper The 5-day track of Tropical Storm Pena as of this morning. Tropical Storm Pena has weakened and could dissipate as soon as today as it moves west far south of Hawaii. As of 5 a.m. today, Pena had…
Tropical Storm Pena passing far south of HawaiiThe Garden Island · 19 h agoPublished 12:04 am Monday, November 9, 2026 The 5-day forecast map for Tropical Storm Pena as of 5 p.m. Sunday Tropical Storm Pena was passing about 500 miles south of Hawaii island today. Tropical Storm Pena is passing far south of…
Tropical Storm Pena begins passing well south of HawaiiHonolulu Star-Advertiser · 35 h agoSunday, November 8, 2026 84° Today's Paper The five-day forecast map for Tropical Storm Pena as of this morning Tropical Storm Pena was passing about 500 miles south of Hawaii island today. Tropical Storm Pena has started its pass far…
Tropical Storm Pena forms well southeast of Hawaii, no threat to land@hawaiinewsnow · 3 days agoThe National Hurricane Center said Pena should remain on a track well south of the Hawaiian Islands. HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - After a lull of tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific, a new tropical storm has formed well…
Tropical storm develops east of Northern Luzon, remains outside PARDZRH News · 3 days agoA tropical depression being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has intensified into a tropical storm, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Saturday. In its 8 a.m. update on November 7, PAGASA said the weather…
WEATHER BLOG: Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Central PacificKNWA FOX24 · 3 days agoKNWA/KFTA — Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Central Pacific, making it the 4th storm to do so there. After a quiet week following Major Hurricane Vance’s dissipation, Pena slowly developed and organized into a tropical storm, initially…
Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Pacific Ocean south of HawaiiKokomo Tribune · 3 days agoThe U.S. National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Pena has formed in the Pacific Ocean. Pena was centered Friday well south of the Hawaiian islands. A hurricane center advisory says the storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It…
Tropical Storm Pena forms far southeast of Hawaiʻi, no threat to landKITV Island News · 3 days agoHONOLULU (Island News) -- Tropical Storm Pena has formed well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, but forecasters say the storm poses no threat to land. As of 11 a.m. Friday, Pena was located about 650 miles southeast of South Point on…
Additional Outages Possible As Tropical Storm Moke Arrives, Hawaiian Electric SaysMarketScreener · 3 days agoHAWAIIAN ELECTRIC: * RESTORED POWER TO APPROXIMATELY 3,200 HAWAII ISLAND CUSTOMERS SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING * SAYS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, ABOUT 6,460 CUSTOMERS REMAIN WITHOUT... Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Additional Outages Possible…
Tropical Storm Pena has formed in the Pacific Ocean, south of the Hawaiian islandsThe Courier · 3 days agoJet nosedives and erupts into fireball near busy roadway in South Florida. All 9 on board died - Iran's leader says response to attack would have no 'geographic limits,' and other Mideast news - Sullivan, Peltola project confidence while…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions