How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
The odds
9%At least 1
04
How the odds have moved
At least 1: 19% on Oct 20, 9% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 1 PM ETAt least 1: 16% → 1%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 9% | ▲ 5 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 15.6K |
| At least 2 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 8.0K | ||
| At least 3 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. House, House, Independents
Search ›- Kentucky U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Kentucky U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- Montana U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Montana U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- Iowa U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Iowa U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- New Hampshire U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News New Hampshire U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
- Democrat Nancy Lacore wins election to U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional DistrictThe Washington Post Democrat Nancy Lacore won election Friday to the U.S. House of Representatives representing South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, defeating Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt
- Arizona U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Arizona U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- Idaho U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Idaho U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- South Carolina U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News South Carolina U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
- Congress News: U.S. House, Senate Breaking Headlines and VideoNBC News Voters reject Trump’s GOP as Democrats rack up wins ‘A Watergate-level repudiation’: Ted Cruz weighs in on midterm wave Billionaire Leon Black sues Rep. Robert Garcia, alleging defamation over Epstein comments Inside the…
- Michigan Democrats flip three U.S. House seats in 2026 midterm, hold majority in the stateNovember 4, 2026 / 5:58 PM EST / CBS Detroit With Democrats holding the majority in the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm election, the same occurred in Michigan, where Democrats flipped three House seats, giving them the…
- Florida U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Florida U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
- Massachusetts U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News Massachusetts U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions