NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%
- Greg Murphy16%
Install
Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot? (Opening of the 120th Congress)
The odds
93%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 92% on Nov 7, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93% | ▼ 2 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 94.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Hakeem Jeffries, Speaker, Opening
Search ›- Hakeem Jeffries will "walk in with a very workable majority": former House Speaker Paul RyanFormer House Speaker Paul Ryan said the expected incoming House Speaker, Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, is going to come into a "pretty damn good majority" following the midterms. But given the divided government, Ryan said, Jeffries will have…
- Far-left Dems put pressure on Hakeem Jeffries ahead of House speaker voteFox News contributor Mollie Hemingway discusses Democrats' plans to investigate the Trump administration and growing progressive pressure on Hakeem Jeffries ahead of the House speaker vote. Far-left Dems put pressure on Hakeem Jeffries…
- Newly elected progressives wary of backing Hakeem Jeffries for House speaker©2026 Fox News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. All market data delayed 20 minutes. Newly elected progressives wary of backing Hakeem Jeffries for House speaker…
- Lefty activist could pocket more than $500K from petition to stop Hakeem Jeffries from becoming House speakerWASHINGTON — A woman who organized a petition calling on House Democrats to stop Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries from becoming speaker could stand to take in more than half a million dollars from the effort. Nicole Whitted is a Change.org…
- WATCH LIVE: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries holds a press conferenceHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries holds a press conference as Congress returns to Washington D.C. WATCH LIVE: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries holds a press conference House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries holds a press conference…
- Hakeem Jeffries says Iran is 'stronger now' under Pete Hegseth©2026 Fox News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. All market data delayed 20 minutes. Hakeem Jeffries says Iran is 'stronger now' under Pete Hegseth House Minority…
- Hakeem Jeffries faces progressive demands ahead of House leadership voteChief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on upcoming congressional leadership elections and progressive demands. Jeremy Hunt and Richard Fowler discuss Democratic divisions and the 2028 presidential race on 'The Faulkner…
- Hakeem Jeffries accuses Pete Hegseth of abusing his powerFox News correspondent Alex Hogan reports on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ criticism of War Secretary Pete Hegseth amid Democrats’ calls for impeachment on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Hakeem Jeffries accuses Pete Hegseth of abusing his…
- Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats are committed to "holding the crooks accountable" in new CongressNovember 9, 2026 / 10:05 AM EST / CBS News Washington — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who's poised to become House Speaker in the new Congress following his party's widespread gains in the midterm elections, said Monday that…
- Hakeem Jeffries on immigration reform, tackling corruption and moreCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Hakeem Jeffries on…
- Hakeem Jeffries gloats that he’s a ‘hard yes’ on another impeachmentHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday he is a “hard yes” on impeaching embattled Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. “I’m a hard yes on the Hegseth resolution,” Jeffries (D-NY) told ABC’s “This Week.” “The so-called secretary of…
- Hakeem Jeffries supports impeaching Pete Hegseth, and a deadly mass shooting in Poland: Weekend RundownHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he supports impeachment efforts against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which are expected to be brought to a vote this week. Asked in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” whether he would…
Related markets
All house ›Who will be the next new Speaker of the House? (Before 2031)
94%Hakeem Jeffries
- Hakeem Jeffries94%▼ 1
- Jim Jordan<1%
- Steve Scalise<1%
Alaska House winner? (2026)
83%Nick Begich III
- Nick Begich III83%▼ 8
- Bill Hill16%▲ 7
- Eric Hafner<1%
CO-04 House winner?
>99%Eileen Laubacher
- Eileen Laubacher>99%▲ 1
- Lauren Boebert<1%▼ 1
AZ-02 House Election Winner
>99%Eli Crane (R)
- Eli Crane (R)>99%▲ 2
- Jonathan Nez (D)<1%▼ 1
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
250.5median
207252
Median 250.5Middle half 249.7 – 251.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions