Israel Katz departure announced? (Before 2027)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $47 today · $2.7K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 61 min ago

The odds

53%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 38% on Oct 20, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	53%	▲ 1	49¢	57¢	$1.75	5.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

Search ›

'Completely baseless and false': Israel Katz denies Netanyahu-IDF chief clash over Iran strike plans@firstpost · 15 days agoDefence Minister Israel Katz rejected reports of a rift between Israel’s political leadership and the military over Iran, said no pre-election attack was planned and further warned that any Iranian strike would draw a powerful response…
Netanyahu, 34 other ‘Israelis’ face trial in Turkey over Gaza flotillaRoya News · 16 days agoA Turkish court has launched proceedings against ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 34 other ‘Israelis’ over the interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, maintaining arrest warrants for all defendants and…
Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuFox News · 15 days agoA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld…
Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News · 16 days agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastthe Guardian · 16 days agoIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were…
Israel to close West Bank crossings on election day as crackdown escalatesBBC News · 16 days agoAll West Bank land crossings will be closed during Tuesday's election in Israel, the country's military says, and Palestinian workers will be barred from entering all settlements. The restrictions come amid a crackdown in the occupied West…
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videothe Guardian · 16 days agoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's…
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelNPR · 15 days agoA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former…
Israelis set to decide whether Netanyahu still deserves to lead after Oct. 7 attacksNew York Post · 15 days agoTEL AVIV — Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be punished for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack — or is he, in fact, the strongest person to protect the Jewish state during its multi-front war? That is perhaps the central issue when…
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionFox News · 16 days agoPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman
Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promiseNew York Post · 15 days agoIsraeli-Arabs could sway the balance of power in Israel’s general elections next week as the country’s two major parties are predicted to fall short of a majority in the Knesset. Nearly all of Israel’s polls ahead of Tuesday’s election…
American Jews who fled to Israel over rising antisemitism could prove decisive for Netanyahu’s futureNew York Post · 15 days agoJERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say. An…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIsrael Ministry of Defense, The New York Times, the Associated Press

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.7K (5,146 contracts)

Today$47

This week$268

At stake$1.1K

In the news833 headlines today, 4,961 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Israel Katz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Minister of Defense of Israel or has actually left as Minister of Defense of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions