The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
$100.00
8.3K
Before Nov 1, 2026
2%
▲ 1
$50.00
5.3K
Before Jan 1, 2027
5%
2¢
8¢
$12.50
6.2K
Before Apr 1, 2027
13%
▼ 1
10¢
15¢
$6.67
2.9K
Before Jul 1, 2027
28%
26¢
31¢
$3.23
1.0K
Before Jan 1, 2028
41%
▼ 1
38¢
44¢
$2.27
2.1K
Before Jul 1, 2028
51%
▲ 1
47¢
55¢
$1.82
505
Before Jan 1, 2029
74%
72¢
75¢
$1.33
620
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Germany and Europe must build their own AI more quicklyTNW | Eu · 7 days agoThe German chancellor called digital sovereignty in AI “a truly existential question” at a conference in Berlin. German chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen, May 2026 Germany and Europe must move faster to…
Zelensky to visit Berlin on Nov. 3, German chancellor saysThe Kyiv Independent · 7 days agoPresident Volodymyr Zelensky is due to visit Berlin later today, on Nov. 3, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz announced Zelensky's anticipated visit in a speech at the Berlin Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the German…
Friedrich Merz Fast FactsKRDO · 10 days ago(CNN) — Here’s a look at the life Friedrich Merz, chancellor of Germany. Birth date: November 11, 1955 Birth place: Brilon, Germany Birth name: Joachim-Friedrich Martin Josef Merz Father: Joachim Merz, judge Education: Studied law at the…
The Night Chancellor Merz Changed His Mind About Donald TrumpPOLITICO · 10 days agoThe incoming German chancellor campaigned as a debt hawk. Then a source told him about Trump’s plans for NATO. Robin Alexander is a correspondent for the Axel Springer Global Network. His book, Last Chance: The New Chancellor and the Fight…
German chancellor says peace talks impossible without Europe's participationUkrainska Pravda · 7 days agoДолучайтеся до клубу УП! German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that European countries want and must be involved in peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, as key issues cannot be resolved without them. Source: Merz at a joint…
Germany Chancellor Merz says AI must be 'guided by human values"Ghana Business News · 7 days agoGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for the development of artificial intelligence to be consistently guided by human values. Speaking at government’s Digital Summit in Berlin on Monday, Merz emphasized that people and their…
Chancellor Merz Says Germany’s Next President Must be a Womanmint · 7 days ago(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany must appoint a woman as head of state for the first time as the ruling coalition nears a decision on who should succeed President Frank-Walter Steinmeier next year. “I will propose a…
Germany's next president should be a woman, Chancellor Merz saysYahoo News · 7 days agoGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said Germany's next president should be a woman. "I will propose a joint female candidate to the party, a candidate from the political centre," Merz said at a conference of his party's chairs on Monday…
Germany's chancellor called for Korean unity. Does Seoul want that?dw.com · 8 days agoGermany, like Korea, was once divided by rival political systems and by one of the world's most fortified borders. Chancellor Merz called for a reunified Korea during his recent visit — but the prospect seems faint. The story of South and…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions