Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31 · $2K traded · $309 at stake · prices read 84 min ago

The odds

7%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 10% on Oct 20, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	7%	▼ 1	6¢	8¢	$12.50	28.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OPEC

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Shipping, insurance costs for crude oil increase significantly: OPECBastillepost 巴士的報 · 5 days agoThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday highlighted an unprecedented surge in shipping and insurance costs for crude oil. According to OPEC's latest pamphlet, tanker rates have risen sharply across all…
Moscow Courts Africa, Seeks Opec-Style Coordination for Gas SuppliersEnergy Intelligence · 5 days agoEnergy Intelligence Moscow Courts Africa, Seeks Opec-Style Coordination for Gas Suppliers The Kremlin used the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) and Russia-Africa summits in Moscow last week to promote an expansive energy agenda and…
IEA, IEF, and OPEC Call Emergency Summit on Maritime Energy TransportationVindobona · 5 days agoDuring the meeting, the leaders of the three major organizations made a joint public statement: OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol, and IEF Secretary-General Jassim Alshirawi. Costs Rise to Over…
OPEC+ Quota Reset Could Cap 2027 Oil Supply & Reprice Non-OPEC Producerscruxinvestor.com · 7 days agoDespite the oil sell-off, production below OPEC+ quotas could keep prices above forecasts, creating opportunities beyond the market's immediate reaction. Brent crude futures fell $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 a barrel, while US West Texas…
IEA, IEF and OPEC Hold Technical Workshop on Maritime Energy Flows and Market Stability@indexbox · 5 days agoThe session stemmed from a request by ministers at the Declaration of Cooperation consultation meeting in Riyadh on 12 October 2026, held after IEF17. Those ministers emphasised the need to preserve uninterrupted energy flows, raised…
UAE boosts oil exports after leaving OPECThe Korea Herald · 7 days agoWorld UAE boosts oil exports after leaving OPEC Published : Nov. 3, 2026 - 11:21:19 LONDON (Reuters) -- Six months after leaving OPEC, the United Arab Emirates on Monday began hosting ADIPEC, one of the world's largest energy conferences…
UAE capitalises on oil supply disruption after OPEC exitMEO · 7 days agoLONDON – Six months after leaving OPEC, the United Arab Emirates on Monday began hosting ADIPEC, one of the world’s largest energy conferences, where it told an audience of industry executives it had increased oil exports in spite of the…
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027New York Post · 8 days agoOPEC+ oil-producing countries kept December production targets steady on Sunday, confirming expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until next year, as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Iran…
Crude Oil Prices Rise on Supply Concerns Despite OPEC’s Sixth Demand Forecast CutAPAC Digital News Network · 6 days agoConcerns over tightening supply were amplified by a decline in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stockpiles to 282.2 million barrels, marking their lowest level since October 1982, following withdrawals linked to the 172-million-barrel…
UAE Oil Exports Rise Since Leaving OPECMarineLink · 8 days agoSix months after leaving OPEC, the United Arab Emirates on Monday began hosting ADIPEC, one of the world's largest energy conferences, where it told an audience of industry executives it had increased oil exports in spite of the Iran war…
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets ahead of tougher 2027 callMagzter · 7 days agoOPEC+ oil-producing countries kept December production targets steady on Sunday, confirming expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until next year, as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Iran…
Oil Enters November With OPEC+ Holding Steady and Five Producers Set to Report@PRNewswire · 8 days agoNov 02, 2026, 07:50 ET Five earnings reports, a weekly inventory print and a payrolls number in the same five sessions can pull energy stocks in different directions. The free Knowledge is Power guide from Stock Preachers, available at…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Washington Post, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2K (28,848 contracts)

At stake$309

In the news3 headlines today, 61 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions