Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
7%chance▼ 1
Install
Will Venezuela exit OPEC?
The odds
38%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202722%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202838%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 10% on Oct 19, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 22% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 2.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 38% | ▲ 1 | 34¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, OPEC
Search ›- US urges Venezuela to release remaining political prisonersVenezuelan Foreign Minister Oliver Blanco and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks on Monday The US has urged Venezuela to release the remaining political prisoners being held in the South American country. More than 1,000…
- Elections pose next test for VenezuelaInterim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez held a rare address last week in which she vowed to hold elections. Venezuelaâs next big test will be whether it can turn the Trump administrationâs plan for elections into a genuine…
- Venezuela’s oil buildout faces worker shortageDecades of mismanagement and corruption have hollowed out the sector, while a government crackdown and an economic crisis led to a mass exodus. Venezuela’s oil buildout faces worker shortage A shortage of oil and gas workers in Venezuela…
- Trump addresses midterm elections, making claims on Greenland, Venezuela, and Abdul Al SayadPresident Trump addresses the upcoming midterm elections, outlining achievements and criticizing opponents. The speech details claims regarding Greenland, oil from Venezuela, and Michigan Senate nominee Abdul Al Sayad. Trump addresses…
- Trump rips ex-lawyer Alina Habba’s ‘obnoxious’ $50M deal with pardoned Venezuelan banker’s familyPresident Trump tore into his former personal attorney Alina Habba on Saturday night, calling her reported $50 million contract with the family of a Venezuelan banker he later pardoned “totally obnoxious and outrageous.” “I thought it was…
- OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027OPEC+ oil-producing countries kept December production targets steady on Sunday, confirming expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until next year, as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Iran…
- OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep oil output targets steady in December, sources sayOPEC+ oil-producing countries have agreed in principle to keep their December oil output targets steady at a meeting on Sunday, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in line with expectations that further output…
- Maduro Long-Sentence Odds Climb to 39%Traders now see a very long prison term for Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s ousted president, as more likely than a week ago. No new ruling explains it. Bettors on Polymarket, a platform where users trade real money on outcomes, now give 39%…
- Democrats Urge Trump to Retain AI Messages About Maduro Capture Operation in VenezuelaSaturday, October 31, 2026 by Joseph Morales The letter, dated October 28, was signed by Jamie Raskin, the leading Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, and Robert Garcia, his counterpart on the Committee on Oversight and Government…
- U.S. judge behind landmark XRP ruling takes over Maduro caseJudge Analisa Torres, who famously ruled that XRP is only a security "sometimes," is now presiding over the Maduro narcoterrorism case. This trial exposes a shocking intersection: a U.S. soldier allegedly used classified intel to bet on…
- Venezuela: The Unbroken ArcThe assault on Caracas reflects the deeply conventional character of Trumpian foreign policy. Join our mailing list The US assault on Venezuela in January 2026 was described by critics and cheerleaders alike as ‘unprecedented’. Yet seen in…
- OPEC+ Quota Reset Could Cap 2027 Oil Supply & Reprice Non-OPEC ProducersDespite the oil sell-off, production below OPEC+ quotas could keep prices above forecasts, creating opportunities beyond the market's immediate reaction. Brent crude futures fell $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 a barrel, while US West Texas…
Related markets
All world leaders ›When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Nov 16, 2027even chance by
- Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 2
- Before Feb 1, 202713%▲ 2
13 more
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 3
- Before Apr 1, 202723%▼ 2
- Before May 1, 202725%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202735%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202739%
- Before Aug 1, 202740%▼ 1
- Before Sep 1, 202742%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202746%
- Before Nov 1, 202749%
- Before Dec 1, 202752%▲ 3
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202866%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202970%
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
193.4median
160230
Median 193.4Middle half 188.7 – 199.4
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
191.7median
160230
Median 191.7Middle half 187.3 – 195.6
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
299.8median
250340
Median 299.8Middle half 288.1 – 309.8
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)
193.3median
140230
Median 193.3Middle half 185.8 – 202.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions