US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026

Kalshi Economy › Growth & recession Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $2.3K traded · $2.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

$166.96median
$120$230
Median $166.96Middle half $161.52 – $176.11

How the odds have moved

Median: $168.52 on Oct 5, $166.96 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Above $130 billion 97% 95¢ 99¢ $1.01
Above $140 billion 97% 94¢ 99¢ $1.01 437
Above $150 billion 96% 93¢ 99¢ $1.01 1.1K
Above $160 billion 82% 78¢ 86¢ $1.16 600
Above $170 billion 36% 32¢ 40¢ $2.50 450
Above $180 billion 18% 14¢ 22¢ $4.55 865
Above $190 billion 8% 4¢ 11¢ $9.09 655
Above $200 billion 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 5.00
Above $210 billion 5% 1¢ 8¢ $12.50 5.00
Above $220 billion 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 10.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All growth & recession ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions