Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Alabama Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
6%Moore, 11+ pts
935
How the odds have moved
Moore, 11+ pts: 84% on Oct 20, 6% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 3 PM ETMoore, 11+ pts: 87% → 6%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore, 11+ pts | 6% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 190 | |
| Moore, 13+ pts | 5% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | 5.8K |
| Moore, 15+ pts | 5% | 1¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.3K | |
| Moore, 17+ pts | 5% | ▲ 2 | 0¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.4K |
| Moore, 19+ pts | 5% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.99 | 2.7K |
| Moore, 21+ pts | 5% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $10.64 | 2.5K |
| Moore, 23+ pts | 5% | 15¢ | $6.67 | 7.8K | ||
| Moore, 25+ pts | 5% | 3¢ | $31.25 | 5.1K | ||
| Moore, 27+ pts | 5% | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.1K | ||
| Moore, 29+ pts | 5% | 16¢ | $6.25 | 656 | ||
| Moore, 31+ pts | 5% | 16¢ | $6.25 | 603 | ||
| Moore, 33+ pts | 1% | ▼ 2 | 16¢ | $6.25 | 845 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alabama Senate
Search ›- April Weaver elected first woman majority leader of Alabama SenateMONTGOMERY, Ala. (WBRC) - Republican Sen. April Weaver has been elected majority leader of the Alabama state Senate, making her the first woman in state history to hold the position. Weaver, R-Brierfield, was elected to the position on…
- April Weaver becomes first woman to serve as Alabama Senate majority leaderWeaver becomes the first woman to hold the post in Alabama history. She said she will focus on unifying the Republican caucus and advancing GOP-backed legislation. The Alabama Senate Republican Caucus elected Senator April Weaver…
- Provisional ballots could lead to recount in Alabama Senate District 10 raceBIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Andrew Jones’ campaign says 52 votes currently separate the candidates in the Alabama Senate District 10 race, with provisional ballots still to be reviewed. The campaign estimates between 181 and 204 provisional ballots…
- April Weaver elected first woman to lead Alabama Senate RepublicansMONTGOMERY, Ala — Alabama Senate Republicans have elected Sen. April Weaver, R-Brierfield, as majority leader for the 2026-30 term, making her the first woman to hold the position in state history. The 24-member Senate Republican Caucus…
- Alabama Senate Republicans nominate Garlan Gudger for pro tem, elect April Weaver majority leaderAlabama Senate Republicans have nominated Sen. Garlan Gudger for a full term as president pro tem and elected Sen. April Weaver as majority leader for the 2026-2030 quadrennium. The 24-member Republican caucus selected the two lawmakers…
- Former State Rep. April Weaver wins Republican primary in Alabama Senate District 14Former State Rep. April Weaver (R-Brierfield) on Tuesday routed the competition to win the special Republican primary in Alabama Senate District 14. The district comprises portions of Bibb, Chilton and Shelby Counties, including areas hit…
- Alabama Senate Republicans nominate Garlan Gudger for full term as Pro Tem, elect April Weaver as Majority Leader over LivingstonThe Alabama Senate Republican Caucus held its first official meeting since the conclusion of the 2026 election cycle in Birmingham on Thursday and elected leadership to usher the GOP supermajority into a new quadrennium under a new…
- April Weaver elected first female Alabama Senate majority leaderWBRC April Weaver elected first female Alabama Senate majority leader American Foundation for Suicide Prevention holding annual Out of the Darkness Suicide Awareness walk Water usage restored after lightning strike caused outage in…
- Garlan Gudger elected by Alabama Senate Republican Caucus to succeed Greg Reed as President Pro TemporeAll 35 members of the Alabama State Senate will vote on Gudger as President Pro Tem when the Alabama Legislature reconvenes in February. By comparison, Reed was elected unanimously by the chamber when nominated by the caucus to serve as…
- Democrat Billy Beasley wins reelection to Alabama Senate District 28Beasley, who turns 87 about the time new term begins early next year, has served in the state Senate since 2010. MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WTVY) - Longtime Democratic state Sen. Billy Beasley has won another term representing Alabama Senate…
- Alabama Senate District 10 Too Close to Call; Battles Leads Jones by 53 VotesCENTRE– The Alabama Senate District 10 race remained too close to call Tuesday night. Jesse Battles held a 53-vote lead over Andrew Jones, with provisional ballots still outstanding. The combined unofficial tally from Cherokee, Etowah, and…
- Democrats flip two Alabama Senate seats as District 10 remains closePerspectives from across the aisle Dig in on political issues Watch and listen to politics unfold Find articles by keyword, author, or topic from our complete coverage of Alabama politics. Rudolph Valentino Drake and Jared Sluss won in…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions