Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Iowa Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
4.45median
07
Median 4.45Middle half 4.15 – 4.75
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.97 on Nov 4, 4.45 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turek, 1+ pts | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 7.5K | |
| Turek, 2+ pts | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 71.3K | |
| Turek, 3+ pts | 98% | ▼ 1 | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 35.5K |
| Turek, 4+ pts | 88% | ▲ 11 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 34.1K |
| Turek, 5+ pts | 5% | 0¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 7.4K | |
| Turek, 6+ pts | <1% | ▼ 5 | 12¢ | $8.33 | 25.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iowa Senate
Search ›- Local lawmaker reelected to leadership position in Iowa SenateTelegraphHerald.com An area lawmaker was reelected to a leadership position in the Iowa Senate. Mike Klimesh, R-Spillville, will continue to serve as Senate majority leader, according to a press release from the Republican Party of Iowa…
- Democrat Nikhil Wagle; Republican Joe Stutting defeat incumbents in Iowa Senate racesTwo incumbent senators lost reelection bids in Scott County, according to unofficial election night tallies. Joe Stutting, who won a seat in Iowa Senate, is nearly halfway through the end of his last year as North Scott's superintendent…
- Josh Turek Defeats Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate RaceNov 03, 2026 at 11:51 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:55 PM EST Democrat Josh Turek has won Iowa's U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Ashley Hinson in a contest closely watched as a measure of political sentiment in the rural Midwest…
- ‘The impossible was possible’: Turek celebrates Iowa Senate winDemocrat Josh Turek won a highly contested race to take a seat in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, defeating Republican Ashley Hinson, to represent Iowa in Washington D.C. Who should pay when major development projects fail? Both Iowa Senate…
- ‘You sure do love an underdog’: Turek says after flipping Iowa Senate seat | CNN PoliticsDemocrat Josh Turek speaks to supporters in Iowa after CNN projects he will win the race for the state's open Senate seat. House Speaker Mike Johnson alluded to the challenging political headwinds the party in power typically faces during…
- Josh Turek flips Iowa Senate seat, giving Democrats a boost in the fight for the majorityDemocrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson to take Iowa’s open Senate seat, NBC News projects, a critical flip for his party in the fight for the majority. Turek, a state representative who won a contested primary this year…
- Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate race to hand Democrats major victory in Republican stateAshley Hinson loses heated contest in former swing state, a sign Republicans may be losing rural voters US midterm elections – live updates Track live results from all 50 states Democrat Josh Turek has won the US Senate race in Iowa…
- Democrat Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate ElectionWOWT Democrat Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate Election Denise Powell becomes second woman elected to represent Nebraska in Congress Election 2026: voters reject online sports betting measures Nebraska election results appear to end…
- Election 2026 Iowa SenategoSkagit - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Republican Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, speaks at an election night event as her family stands behind her, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in…
- Kalshi projects Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate raceThe Democrat trailed on Kalshi all year before pulling even in the final days, briefly leading at a record 52%. Kalshi projects Josh Turek (D) will win the 2026 Iowa Senate race, defeating Ashley Hinson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced…
- Zajicek wins Iowa Senate District 11 seat against WaughThe race between two first-time candidates vying for the Iowa Senate District 11 seat ended with a win for a Norwalk Republican who has described herself as “a patriot, not a politician.” In the midterm election held on Nov. 3, Hollie…
- Iowa Senate Winner Josh Turek Takes Aim at Elon Musk, Who Says “Election-Interfering Space Lasers Didn’t Work This Time”Josh Turek, Iowa General Assembly, via Wikimedia Commons Contributing to the blue wave that swept U.S. elections on Tuesday, Democrat Rob Sand, a two-term state auditor, won Iowa’s governorship with more than 55 percent of the vote and…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions