Illinois Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $10 today · $2.2K traded · $1.4K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

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The odds

24.5median
733
Median 24.5Middle half 23.6 – 25.7

How the odds have moved

Median: 20.4 on Oct 19, 24.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Stratton, 9+ pts 100% 99¢ 89.00
Stratton, 11+ pts 100% 99¢ 21.00
Stratton, 13+ pts 99% 50¢ $1.01 114
Stratton, 15+ pts 99% 54¢ $1.01 369
Stratton, 17+ pts 96% 51¢ 99¢ $1.01 897
Stratton, 19+ pts 96% 50¢ 99¢ $1.01 253
Stratton, 21+ pts 96% 99¢ $1.01 35.00
Stratton, 23+ pts 93% 99¢ $1.01 482
Stratton, 25+ pts 36% $2.78 60.00
Stratton, 27+ pts 4% 99¢ $1.01 301
Stratton, 29+ pts 4% $28.57 400
Stratton, 31+ pts 4% $28.57 4.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Illinois Senate

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  • Stratton projected winner for U.S. Illinois Senate, replacing DurbinCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News: America Decides: Election 2026 CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS…
  • Julianna Stratton gives first remarks as projected winner in U.S. Illinois Senate raceCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Colorado: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS News…
  • Arlington Heights Trustee Santa Maria Wins Illinois Senate SeatArlington Heights · 5 days agoARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL — Arlington Heights Trustee Carina Santa Maria won election to the Illinois Senate on Tuesday, defeating Republican David Mathis to succeed outgoing Democratic Sen. Mark Walker in the 27th District. Santa Maria, a…
  • Indian American Nabeela Syed flips Republican-held Illinois Senate seatThe American Bazaar · 6 days agoIndian American politician Nabeela Syed has scored a major victory in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, defeating Republican Darby Hills to flip a Republican-held seat in the Illinois state Senate. Syed won Illinois Senate District 26…
  • Hyderabad-Rooted Nabeela Syed Wins Illinois Senate SeatHyderabad Mail · 6 days agoHYDERABAD: Nabeela Syed, a Democrat whose parents hail from Hyderabad, has won a seat in the Illinois State Senate, defeating Republican incumbent Darby Hills in the US midterm elections. Syed, 27, will represent the 26th Senate District…
  • Nabeela Syed flips Republican-held Illinois Senate seatMuslim Network TV · 6 days agoCHICAGO (MNTV) – Nabeela Syed, a Democratic state representative and one of the first Muslim women elected to the Illinois legislature, has won a seat in the state Senate, flipping a Republican-held district for her party. Syed defeated…
  • Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Race, Marks First Time Three Black Women Will Serve in SenateBlackNews.com · 5 days agoNationwide — Juliana Stratton has won the Illinois U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Don Tracy in the November 3, 2026, election. Her victory makes her the second Black woman to […] The post Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Race…
  • Nabeela Syed, 27-Year-Old Democrat With Roots in Hyderabad, Flips Illinois Senate Seat in Record-Setting RaceAmerican Kahani · 4 days agoSyed won 57% of the vote, flipping a Republican-held seat as Democrats expanded their supermajority in Springfield. The daughter of immigrants from Hyderabad, India, she became the youngest woman and one of the first Muslims elected to the…
  • Illinois Senate, District 35Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoLive results for Illinois Senate District 35: Sarah Mertens and Dave Syverson. See vote totals from the Nov. 3, 2026, election. The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
  • Illinois Senate, District 36Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoIllinois Senate District 36 Election Results 2026 Chicago Sun-Times The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
  • Illinois Senate, District 38Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoLive results for Illinois Senate District 38: Ernie Marcelain and Sue Rezin. See vote totals from the Nov. 3, 2026, election. The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
  • Reproductive Freedom for All Celebrates as Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate RaceReproductive Freedom for All® · 6 days agoWe're pulling out all the stops to ensure voters get out and vote for reproductive freedom candidates up and down the ballot, and we want you with us! The key races we're invested in between now and November 3 to win back a reproductive…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions