Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Louisiana Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
1%Letlow, 3+ pts
133
How the odds have moved
Letlow, 3+ pts: 87% on Oct 19, 1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETLetlow, 3+ pts: 63% → 2%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETLetlow, 3+ pts: 78% → 92%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Letlow, 3+ pts | 1% | 37¢ | $2.70 | 10.9K | ||
| Letlow, 5+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | 17.2K | |||
| Letlow, 7+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 16.4K | ||
| Letlow, 9+ pts | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 18.2K | |
| Letlow, 11+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 38.2K | ||
| Letlow, 13+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | 19.0K | |||
| Letlow, 15+ pts | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.5K | |
| Letlow, 17+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 103.2K | ||
| Letlow, 19+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 30.6K | ||
| Letlow, 21+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.2K | ||
| Letlow, 23+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.5K | ||
| Letlow, 25+ pts | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K | |
| Letlow, 27+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.5K | ||
| Letlow, 29+ pts | 1% | 0¢ | 7.1K | |||
| Letlow, 31+ pts | 1% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 228 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Louisiana Senate
Search ›- Julia Letlow narrowly wins Louisiana Senate raceLouisiana Congresswoman Julia Letlow qualifies for the U.S. Senate race on Feb. 13, 2026. Source: USA TODAY Network USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect//November 4, 2026// Louisiana voters promoted Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow…
- Louisiana Senate race raises questions about state’s political identityDemocrat Jamie Davis’s narrow loss to Republican Julia Letlow in Louisiana’s Senate race sparks discussions about whether the state is shifting from solid red to a potential swing state. The close Senate race between Democrat Jamie Davis…
- Louisiana Senate race ends in narrow victory for Julia Letlow as Jamie Davis eyes governor’s raceRepublican Julia Letlow has won Louisiana's closely contested U.S. Senate race, defeating Democrat Jamie Davis by less than 26,000 votes in an election that drew nearly 1.5 million voters statewide. The city has been in a housing emergency…
- Jamie Davis congratulates Julia Letlow on Louisiana Senate win, says Jeff Landry ‘on notice’After narrowly losing Louisiana’s race for U.S. Senate on Tuesday night, Democrat Jamie Davis issued a statement Wednesday morning congratulating his opponent, Republican Julia Letlow, on her victory. “I congratulate Ms. Letlow and wish…
- Julia Letlow projected to win Louisiana Senate raceBATON ROUGE, La. (Gray Louisiana) - Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow is projected to defeat Democrat Jamie Davis in Louisiana’s U.S. Senate election, according to WAFB political analyst Jim Engster. Engster projected Letlow as the winner…
- Republicans Retain Louisiana Senate Seat by Narrow MarginLetlow's narrow victory was a notable outcome in a state where Republicans had been heavily favored. The race became unexpectedly competitive after Davis, a farmer and former local official, campaigned on affordability and economic…
- Letlow wins Louisiana Senate Race, but Davis makes it closeRepublican JULIA LETLOW (left), and Democrat JAMIE DAVIS (right) Julia Letlow made history on Tuesday night becoming Louisiana’s first Republican woman elected to the U.S. Senate. But her victory over Democrat Jamie Davis was much closer…
- As early voting comes in, Louisiana Senate race looks close. See the numbers.Jamie Davis, and Julia Letlow ORG XMIT: BAT2610021551130111 Louisiana has begun reporting election results, and the race for U.S. Senate is looking close so far. UPDATE: Julia Letlow narrowly wins Louisiana’s U.S. Senate election as other…
- Congresswoman Julia Letlow Beats Jamie Davis in Closely-Watched Louisiana Senate RaceUPDATE: Congresswoman Julia Letlow will replace Bill Cassidy as U.S. Senator from Louisiana, defeating Jamie Davis in a closely-watched race. LAFAYETTE, La. — Polls closed at 8 p.m. Tuesday in Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race, and results are…
- GOP grows anxious over Jamie Davis in Louisiana Senate raceRead Our 2025 Impact Report In recent years, Republican electoral dominance in the South seems like it’s a near-certainty. In turn, U.S. Senate candidate Julia Letlow, the Republican anointed by the president and the governor, has acted as…
- New poll shows Jamie Davis, Julia Letlow tied in Louisiana Senate raceWhat’s on the midterm ballot for New Orleans voters Tulane alum Max Cohen turns comedy into a career Letter to the Editor: Tulane restricts medical speaker event to appease Zionist pressure campaign Tulane researchers call for relocation…
- Texas Governor, Louisiana Senate races draw voter attentionIn Texas, Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa is challenging Republican Governor Greg Abbott. During an interview with KTBS 3 political anchor Jeff Beimfohr, Hinojosa outlined what she said would be a back-to-basics approach to…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
8%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions