Michigan Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $14.3K today · $3M traded · $1.2M at stake · prices read 6 min ago

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The odds

7.48median

017

Median 7.48Middle half 7.21 – 7.75

How the odds have moved

Median: 2.29 on Oct 20, 7.48 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
El-Sayed, 1+ pts	>99%		100¢			235.7K
El-Sayed, 2+ pts	>99%		100¢	100¢		322.6K
El-Sayed, 3+ pts	>99%		100¢	100¢		666.9K
El-Sayed, 4+ pts	>99%		100¢			556.8K
El-Sayed, 5+ pts	>99%		100¢	100¢		672.4K
El-Sayed, 6+ pts	99%	▲ 1	99¢	100¢		284.4K
El-Sayed, 7+ pts	95%	▲ 5	94¢	96¢	$1.04	297.1K
El-Sayed, 8+ pts	1%	▼ 1	1¢	1¢	$90.91	138.8K
El-Sayed, 9+ pts	1%	▲ 1	1¢	1¢		166.7K
El-Sayed, 11+ pts	<1%			0¢		318.7K
El-Sayed, 13+ pts	<1%			0¢		93.6K
El-Sayed, 15+ pts	<1%			0¢		237.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Michigan Senate

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Michigan Senate winner clashes with reporter hours before election victory-pqYyRmeVIgdTLihxPzduDl8jJQ_5W8vCwmtcFecWXmfXVWAFox News · 4 days agoFox News Michigan Senate winner clashes with reporter hours before election victory-pqYyRmeVIgdTLihxPzduDl8jJQ_5W8vCwmtcFecWXmfXVWA Then-Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed clashes with Sky News reporter James Matthews hours before his…
Abdul El-Sayed Clinches Win in Michigan Senate Race: 'The Bad Guys Lost'Yahoo News · 21 h agoSigns of life have emerged from the oft-discouraging landscape of American politics. For one, Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, has defeated Mike Rogers, a Trump-endorsed Republican, in Michigan. Per the latest Associated Press numbers as of…
Sens. Darrin Quiroz Camilleri, Roger Hauck selected to lead Michigan SenateCBS News · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 4:57 PM EST / CBS Detroit Michigan Democrats on Thursday have elected their new majority leader as the party maintains control of the state Senate following Tuesday's midterm election. Camilleri, who was elected to the…
APTOPIX Election 2026 Michigan SenateBluefield Daily Telegraph · 4 days agoBluefield Daily Telegraph Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers greets people at an election eve event Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Rochester Hills, Mich. - What to know after Israel's election results give neither Netanyahu nor the…
Michigan Senate victory fuels discussion about Dems' futureFox News · 5 days agoFox News Michigan Senate victory fuels discussion about Dems' future Caroline Downey and Al Mottur join 'The Faulkner Focus' to discuss how Abdul El-Sayed's Senate victory in Michigan is boosting the progressive wing of the Democratic…
Abdul El-Sayed launches 'Habibi PAC' days after winning Michigan Senate raceThe Business Standard · 2 days agoMonday November 09, 2026 Abdul El-Sayed has launched a new political action committee called Habibi PAC just days after winning Michigan's US Senate race. The move signals his plans to support political allies and build influence within…
Mike Rogers says "we have a state to save" after loss in Michigan Senate raceCBS News · 5 days agoNovember 4, 2026 / 2:47 PM EST / CBS Detroit Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers released a statement Wednesday after his projected defeat in the Michigan Senate race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the most contentious races of the…
New Michigan Senate majority leader promises actions to lower costsYahoo News · 3 days agoLANSING — Michigan's incoming Senate majority leader said Thursday, Nov. 5, that his caucus, empowered by an expanded Senate majority and a new Democratic state trifecta, plans to take swift legislative actions to try to reduce costs for…
Abdul El-Sayed launches Habibi PAC after Michigan Senate victoryfreerepublic.com · 3 days agoAbdul El-Sayed, who recently won the Democratic primary for the US Senate in Michigan, has launched a political action committee named Habibi PAC, marking an early move to expand his political influence and back other candidates within the…
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate raceNPR · 6 days agoNPR Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won the U.S. Senate election in Michigan. Longtime NPR political correspondent Don Gonyea talks about the results in his home state.
El-Sayed, Rogers remain tight in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 6 days agoFox News El-Sayed, Rogers remain tight in Michigan Senate race Fox News senior national correspondent Rich Edson has the latest on results rolling in from the Michigan Senate race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican…
El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projectsNBC News · 6 days agoAbdul El-Sayed wins the Senate seat in Michigan, defeating Rep. Mike Rogers, NBC News projects. He becomes the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projects Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate…

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Alabama's 1st District margin of victory

49%Carl, 24+ pts

2160

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Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

6.45median

-132

Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38

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Alabama's 5th District margin of victory

7%Strong, 10+ pts

737

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Alabama's 6th District margin of victory

48%Palmer, 18+ pts

1548

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Alabama's 7th District margin of victory

32.6median

948

Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36

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Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

37.4median

2451

Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMichigan Department of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$3M (3,991,553 contracts)

Today$14.3K

This week$1.8M

At stake$1.2M

In the news1 headlines today, 260 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions