Minnesota Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $120 today · $471K traded · $249K at stake · prices read 31 min ago

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The odds

10.0median
023
Median 10.0Middle half 9.51 – 10.6

How the odds have moved

Median: 6.18 on Oct 20, 10.0 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Flanagan, 1+ pts >99% 100¢ 19.6K
Flanagan, 2+ pts >99% 100¢ 100¢ 26.0K
Flanagan, 3+ pts >99% 100¢ 67.7K
Flanagan, 4+ pts >99% 100¢ 100¢ 21.6K
Flanagan, 5+ pts >99% 100¢ 100¢ 85.9K
Flanagan, 6+ pts >99% 100¢ 100¢ 35.4K
Flanagan, 7+ pts 99% 99¢ 100¢ 88.4K
Flanagan, 8+ pts 99% ▲ 1 99¢ 68.9K
Flanagan, 9+ pts 99% 98¢ 59.4K
Flanagan, 11+ pts 5% ▲ 1 1¢ 10¢ $10.31 28.3K
Flanagan, 13+ pts 3% 0¢ 6¢ $16.95 23.4K
Flanagan, 15+ pts 3% 0¢ 5¢ $19.23 23.6K
Flanagan, 17+ pts 3% 0¢ 5¢ $19.61 8.0K
Flanagan, 19+ pts 1% 1¢ $100.00 6.2K
Flanagan, 21+ pts 1% 3¢ $34.48 3.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Minnesota Senate

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  • Steve Jacob to move chambers with win of Minnesota Senate District 20 seat@KTTCTV · 3 days agoALTURA, Minn. (KTTC) – Republican state Rep. Steve Jacob will move to the Minnesota Senate after winning Senate District 20 with 57% of the vote. Jacob defeated DFLer Jason Lohmann. The district covers parts of Dakota, Goodhue, Olmsted…
  • Rochester teacher Simon Glaser flips Minnesota Senate District 24 seat@KTTCTV · 3 days agoROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Simon Glaser, a Rochester Public Schools teacher and political newcomer, won Minnesota’s Senate District 24 seat, flipping it for the first time since 2010. Glaser, a member of the DFL, received 51% of the vote…
  • Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan holds a Minnesota Senate seat for DemocratsNBC News · 6 days agoLt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Republican Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota Senate race, NBC News projects, keeping the seat in Democrats’ column. Flanagan will become the first Native American woman to be elected to the Senate. Democrat…
  • Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy on DFL wins, next stepsMPR News · 5 days agoMPR News Voters on Tuesday returned control of the Minnesota House and Senate to the DFL and kept the party in the governor’s office, giving Democrats a governing trifecta. MPR News host Nina Moini spoke with state Senate Majority Leader…
  • Seifert Wins Minnesota Senate District 15 Seat, Plans to Focus on Rural PrioritiesMarshall Radio · 5 days agoMARSHALL, Minn. — Republican Braxton Seifert is headed to the Minnesota Senate after defeating DFL candidate Andrea Boettger in the Senate District 15 race. Speaking with Marshall Radio on election night from a joint campaign headquarters…
  • Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Senate race over Michele TafoyaNew York Post · 6 days agoDemocrat Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota’s US Senate race Tuesday, defeating Republican Michele Tafoya in a closely watched midterm contest for the seat held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, will become…
  • Steve Green wins reelection in Minnesota Senate District 2Bemidji Pioneer · 5 days agoRepublican incumbent Steve Green has retained his seat representing District 2 in the Minnesota Senate after beating out DFL challenger Dan Rogers in Tuesday's midterm election. Steve Green wins reelection in Minnesota Senate District 2…
  • Braxton Seifert Wins Minnesota Senate District 15 RaceHoodline · 5 days agoVoters in southwest Minnesota's Senate District 15 have elected Republican Braxton Seifert to his first term in the state Senate, according to unofficial results. Seifert, a Marshall bank loan officer and business owner, beat…
  • Kupec likely to request recount, but answers in tight Minnesota Senate race still weeks outInForum · 5 days agoMOORHEAD — An incumbent Minnesota state senator in a nearly tied race will likely request a recount, but more answers on the results are weeks away. Kupec and Peterson, who works as a real estate developer, had been campaigning for months…
  • Incumbent Grant Hauschild wins Minnesota Senate District 3 raceWDIO.com · 6 days agoState Senator Grant Hauschild won re-election in Minnesota Senate District 3, according to results from the Minnesota Secretary of State, beating out Republican challenger Andrea Zupancich. According to the unofficial results, Senator…
  • Republican Jason Rarick reelected to Minnesota SenateCloquet Pine Journal · 6 days agoCARLTON AND PINE COUNTIES — Jason Rarick, R-Pine City, appears to have been reelected to a third term in the Minnesota Senate. With 100 of 106 precincts reporting as of 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Rarick was ahead with 55% of the vote. Rarick…
  • McEwen reelected to Minnesota Senate District 8 seatDuluth News Tribune · 6 days agoDULUTH — Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party incumbent Sen. Jen McEwen defeated Republican Darrick Law to win Minnesota Senate District 8, which includes most of Duluth. McEwen received 76% of the vote to Law's 23%, according to complete but…

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