New Hampshire Governor margin of victory

Kalshi Elections › Governors Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $5.9K traded · $4.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

4.46median

-126

Median 4.46Middle half 3.13 – 6.42

How the odds have moved

Median: 10.8 on Oct 20, 4.46 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Ayotte, 2+ pts	96%	68¢		$1.04	4.8K
Ayotte, 5+ pts	40%		39¢	$2.56	1.5K
Ayotte, 8+ pts	8%		47¢	$2.13	2.6K
Ayotte, 11+ pts	8%		10¢	$10.00	2.5K
Ayotte, 14+ pts	8%		23¢	$4.35	2.4K
Ayotte, 17+ pts	8%		23¢	$4.35	229
Ayotte, 20+ pts	8%		23¢	$4.35	200
Ayotte, 23+ pts	1%		1¢	$90.91	780

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Hampshire Governor

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New Hampshire Governor resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 New Hampshire Governor general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. New Hampshire Governor results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits…
New Hampshire governor election results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Now Democratsâ blue…
Ayotte wins another term as New Hampshire governorThe Black Chronicle · 5 days agoThe Black Chronicle (The Center Square) — New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte won a hard-fought second term Tuesday, defying a midterm backlash against Republicans that saw her party lose control of the state Legislature and Congress…
Kelly Ayotte wins reelection as New Hampshire governorWGME · 6 days agoWGME CONCORD, New Hampshire (WGME) â Republican Gov With 90% of the votes counted, Ayotte led Democrat Cinde Warmington, a former member of the stateâs Executive Council, 51.1% to 47.2% Also read: Democrat Chris Pappas to become first…
Kelly Ayotte to remain New Hampshire governor holding off Democratic challenger@wcax · 6 days agoWCAX Kelly Ayotte to remain New Hampshire governor holding off Democratic challenger
2026 New Hampshire Governor election resultsBostonGlobe.com · 6 days agoResults for the 2026 New Hampshire Governor general election. Find New Hampshire and national elections results at BostonGlobe.com. 2026 New Hampshire Governor election results 13% of votes counted
2026 live election results: New Hampshire governorBoston.com · 6 days agoBoston.com covers what Boston really cares about right now. Add Boston.com as your preferred source on Google to see more of our stories. Be civil. Be kind. To comment, please create a screen name in your profile Live results: U.S. Senate…
Amid GOP meltdown, New England moderation survived | The ScrumBostonGlobe.com · 35 h agoWhen former Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker left office roughly four years ago, some declared his exit as the death of the moderate New England Republican governor. The party, increasingly defined by President Trump’s brand of…
New Hampshire Governor Race 2026: Ayotte vs. WarmingtonMultiState Elections · 7 days ago2026 governor races › New Hampshire General election November 3, 2026 · Updated November 2, 2026 Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is seeking a second two-year term. Warmington says the race is about pocketbooks: she would suspend the state gas tax…
2026 Midterm ElectionsCaledonian Record · 4 days agoHARDWICK — Just eight votes shy of the incumbent Republican in the Caledonia 2 House District race, the Democratic challenger on the ballot decided on Thursday she would not seek a recount. Results in the contest between incumbent Sen…
Democrat Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire’s Senate raceNBC News · 6 days agoBREAKING: Former Gov. Roy Cooper wins North Carolina’s Senate race, flipping the seat for Democrats Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has won New Hampshire’s Senate race, NBC News projects, defeating Republican John Sununu’s bid to return to…
GOP governor defies Dem enthusiasm, tough political climate to win re-election in key swing stateFox News · 6 days agoNew Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte tells Fox News Digital her state is ‘proud to be part of the fair on the National Mall.' The Fox News Decision Desk projects that Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte has defeated Democratic challenger Cinde…

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Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory

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Alabama's 7th District margin of victory

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Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNew Hampshire Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$5.9K (14,994 contracts)

This week$995

At stake$4.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in New Hampshire by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions