New Mexico's 3rd District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.3K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

19.1median
330
Median 19.1

How the odds have moved

Median: 19.2 on Oct 25, 19.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Fernández, 6+ pts 95% 9¢ $1.06 5.00
Fernández, 9+ pts 92% $1.09 11.00
Fernández, 12+ pts 83% 99¢ $1.01 485
Fernández, 15+ pts 83% $1.21 821
Fernández, 18+ pts 55% 0¢ 99¢ $1.01 205
Fernández, 24+ pts 28% 99¢ $1.01 200

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Mexico

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  • Deb Haaland's New Mexico challengeNPR · 3 days agoDeb Haaland is the first Native American governor of New Mexico. She faces big expectations and challenges, but also opportunities in a deep blue state with abundant petroleum revenue. Deb Haaland's New Mexico challenge Deb Haaland is the…
  • New Mexico election resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for New Mexico in the 2026 midterm election. Track U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governor races with real-time vote counts and maps from AP. New Mexico election results AP’s guide to this state When the nation waits for results…
  • New Mexico GOP eyes 'complete reset’ after bruising midtermsSanta Fe New Mexican · 2 days agoCongressional candidate Greg Cunningham, center, pauses from his conversation with Ryan Cangiolosi, former chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico, to speak to his 8-year-old granddaughter, Marleigh Lopez, during his watch party…
  • New Mexico U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoNew Mexico U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News New Mexico U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election…
  • Eye on New Mexico: November 06, 2026KOB 4 · 3 days agoKOB 4 Eye on New Mexico: November 06, 2026 In this week’s Eye on New Mexico, we are talking about New Mexico’s election results and questions about universal childcare and healthcare for Deb Haaland’s incoming administration. Get our…
  • New Mexico Governor resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 New Mexico Governor general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. New Mexico Governor results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • New Mexico poverty falls, but challenges remainabqjournal · 3 days agoNew Mexico has long struggled with one of America’s highest poverty rates. It will be one of the top issues that Gov.-elect Deb Haaland will face as she moves into her new digs in Santa Fe. But new Census Bureau figures reveal something…
  • Two University of New Mexico Students Arrested for Disrupting TPUSA Eventtownhall.com · 2 days agoTwo individuals were reportedly arrested at a Turning Point USA event at the University of New Mexico after protesters threatened to assault the group’s speaker, according to a report from Fox News. Authorities say that Kevin Castro has…
  • ACLU of New Mexico Supports Pueblo Nations in Defending Tribal SovereigntyACLU of New Mexico · 3 days agoACLU of New Mexico Supports Pueblo Nations in their Opposition to Bill That Weakens Tribal Sovereignty ACLU of New Mexico ACLU of New Mexico Supports Pueblo Nations in Defending Tribal Sovereignty November 6, 2026 4:00 pm Albuquerque, N.M…
  • New Mexico governor welcomes Deb Haaland to plan transition of powerKVIA · 3 days agoSANTA FE, N.M. (KVIA) -- Friday, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham welcomed governor-elect Deb Haaland to start planning a smooth transition of power. Tuesday, Haaland defeated her Republican opponent, Gregg Hull. Her victory made…
  • Video New Mexico Governor-elect Deb Haaland on her historic winABC News · 3 days agoNewly elected governor of New Mexico Deb Haaland on becoming the first Native American female governor and how she plans to work with President Trump to help her state's citizens financially. New Mexico Governor-elect Deb Haaland on her…
  • New Mexico lawmakers say they hope to bar informal local collaboration with ICESanta Fe New Mexican · 3 days agoGabriela Carillo, an organizer with youth advocacy group The Semilla Project, speaks to reporters and immigrant advocacy groups. “ I want to continue growing up here, building my future here, and one day raising a family in the same…

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