Oregon Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $3.1K traded · $3K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

16.5median
1135
Median 16.5Middle half 15.7 – 21.5

How the odds have moved

Median: 24.2 on Oct 20, 16.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Merkley, 13+ pts 97% 2¢ 99¢ $1.01 774
Merkley, 15+ pts 95% 99¢ $1.01 1.1K
Merkley, 17+ pts 34% 99¢ $1.01 254
Merkley, 19+ pts 34% 99¢ $1.01 988
Merkley, 21+ pts 30% 99¢ $1.01 1.6K
Merkley, 23+ pts 9% 99¢ $1.01 170
Merkley, 25+ pts 7% 99¢ $1.01 506
Merkley, 27+ pts 4% 99¢ $1.01 260
Merkley, 29+ pts 4% 99¢ $1.01 63.00
Merkley, 31+ pts 4% 99¢ $1.01 163
Merkley, 33+ pts 1% 30¢ $3.33 1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oregon Senate

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  • Oregon 2026 Midterm Election Results@foxnews · 37 h agoNov 4 • 1:48 AM ET AP calls Oregon House District 6 for Andrea Salinas. Nov 4 • 1:24 AM ET AP calls Oregon House District 5 for Janelle Bynum. Nov 4 • 1:09 AM ET AP calls Oregon House District 4 for Val Hoyle. Nov 4 • 12:32 AM ET AP calls…
  • Democrats on track to grow Oregon Senate majorityWest Linn Tidings · 5 days agoPublished 7:09 am Wednesday, November 4, 2026 Democrats held significant leads in two competitive Oregon Senate districts, while Republicans led by slim margins in two others Tuesday night. Half of Oregon’s 30 Senate seats were up for…
  • Dems win Oregon Senate race, GOP takes Arkansas@TeleTraderNews · 6 days agoBreakingthenews.net
  • ELECTION 2026 | Helfrich leads race for Oregon Senate District 26The Outlook · 6 days agoPublished 8:34 pm Tuesday, November 3, 2026 An elected official is nearing his goal of moving from the Oregon House to the Oregon Senate as the race for Senate District 26 (Hood River, Columbia River Gorge) continues to be tallied. Rep…
  • Republican Jack Tibbetts leads in race Oregon Senate District 6KLCC | NPR for Oregonians · 6 days agoRepublican Jack Tibbetts was ahead in the race for Oregon’s Senate District 6 as initial returns came in Tuesday. He had received 60.6% of the vote as of 9:45 p.m. on election night. That outpaced Democrat Sierrah Williams, who had 37.64%…
  • Oregon Democrats Keep Power to Pass Tax Hikes Alone After Holding Key Southern Oregon Senate SeatDaily Tidings · 6 days agoBy Lucille McNamaraNov 4, 2026, 5:51 AM PT As early election results trickle in from the Oregon Secretary of State, Democrats are on track to retain their power to pass tax increases without Republican votes. Based on the candidates…
  • Sara Gelser Blouin, Valerie Draper Woldeit vie for Oregon Senate District 8AOL.com · 6 days agoRepublican Valerie Draper Woldeit is challenging Sen. Sara Gelser Blouin, D-Corvallis, in the race for Oregon Senate District 8 in the Nov. 3 election. The race is a rematch for the candidates, who competed against each other in 2022…
  • What Oregon Democratic gains in election could mean for stateCorvallis Gazette-Times · 5 days agoOregon Democrats were cheering on nationwide and statewide election results in Portland on Nov. 3 as it became clear that not only would they regain full control of Congress, but that Gov. Tina Kotek would call Mahonia Hall home for…
  • Oregon State Parks and Recreation Commission will convene Nov. 17-18 in Newport.Lincoln City Homepage · 5 days agoSALEM, Oregon—The Oregon State Parks and Recreation Commission will convene Nov. 17-18 in Newport. On Nov. 17, commissioners will tour Beverly Beach State Park and hold a work session from 1:00 to 4 p.m. providing background on recreation…
  • Oregon 2026 election resultsCNN · 7 days agoCNN Oregon 2026 election results Live results: Oregon Senate Follow live results in the Oregon Senate race, county by county, as votes are counted on election night. Senate results by county Live results: Oregon Governor Democratic Gov…
  • Progressive candidates, issues hold strong leads across Lane CountyLookout Eugene-Springfield · 5 days agoWe’ve wrapped up our election night coverage. The next round of updated vote counts is expected to be released by 5 p.m. Wednesday. A word about turnout: As of 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, turnout in Lane County was about 49.5%, according to the…
  • Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley wins fourth term in U.S. SenateKATU · 5 days agoOregon Sen. Jeff Merkley (FILE/KATU) PORTLAND, Ore. (KATU) — Democratic Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley is headed back to Washington for a fourth term. Merkley defeated his Republican challenger, State Senator David Brock Smith, leading by…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions