Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
South Dakota Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
21.8median
137
Median 21.8Middle half 21.1 – 22.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 11.4 on Oct 20, 21.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rounds, 3+ pts | >99% | 99¢ | 2.7K | |||
| Rounds, 5+ pts | >99% | 99¢ | 5.8K | |||
| Rounds, 7+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 6.2K | |||
| Rounds, 9+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 21.6K | |||
| Rounds, 11+ pts | >99% | ▲ 1 | 99¢ | 10.4K | ||
| Rounds, 13+ pts | 99% | 96¢ | 29.9K | |||
| Rounds, 15+ pts | 99% | 99¢ | 36.9K | |||
| Rounds, 17+ pts | 99% | 99¢ | 91.6K | |||
| Rounds, 19+ pts | 99% | ▲ 1 | 61¢ | 2.2K | ||
| Rounds, 21+ pts | 80% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 3.7K |
| Rounds, 23+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.8K | ||
| Rounds, 25+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.7K | ||
| Rounds, 27+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $52.63 | 5.0K | ||
| Rounds, 29+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $52.63 | 1.4K | ||
| Rounds, 31+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $52.63 | 5.7K | ||
| Rounds, 33+ pts | 1% | 2¢ | $52.63 | 5.1K | ||
| Rounds, 35+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Dakota Senate
Search ›- Sen. Mike Rounds wins South Dakota Senate raceOAN Staff Sophia Flores 7:33 AM – Wednesday, November 4, 2026 Senator Mike Rounds has won re-election as U.S. Senator from South Dakota. Incumbent Senator Rounds received President Donald Trump’s “complete and total endorsement” for…
- Rounds Defeats Independent Challenger In South Dakota Senate RaceU.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-South Dakota, left, was challenged by independent candidate Brian Bengs in the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. A well-funded challenge by an independent fell short Tuesday as Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds of…
- Independent South Dakota Senate candidate Brian Bengs: Power for South Dakotans ‘is in the middle’Independent U.S. Senate candidate Brian Bengs is challenging GOP incumbent Sen. Mike Rounds in South Dakota after Democrats cleared the field for him. The race tests whether independent candidates can compete in deep-red states and…
- Win or lose, Pennington County Democrats election watch party filled with cheersOn Tuesday’s Election Night, the Pennington County Democratic Party hosted a private watch party at Mexico Topico. Inside the restaurant more than 50 supporters gathered. It's Election Day! The Journal will be updating readers as the day…
- Patrick DockendorfPatrick Paul Dockendorf, 57, went to his heavenly home Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, at Avera Sr. James Hospice House in Yankton. Patrick Paul Dockendorf, 57, went to his heavenly home Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, at Avera Sr. James Hospice House in…
- Candidate Q&A: Senate race, District 32, Helene DuhamelAs Election Day approaches, the Journal reached out to legislative candidates running in Rapid City districts with questions about who they are and where they stand on issues. "My name is Jeff Shelton, and when asked to introduce myself, I…
- Why some Michigan Democrats think Stevens endorsing Rogers will ‘unify’ the partyDemocrats are standing by Abdul El-Sayed — the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan — after his primary opponent, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, withdrew her support and endorsed Republican nominee Mike Rogers, whom she once…
- McMorrow: Stevens’ Mike Rogers endorsement is ‘gonna backfire in a big way’Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow joins Morning Joe to discuss Congresswoman Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed. McMorrow says the move could galvanize Democrats, citing a…
- Trump loses legal challenges as questions about corruption and his financial dealings ‘linger’MS NOW anchors Stephanie Ruhle and Ari Melber join Morning Joe to discuss a federal judge dismissing the Justice Department’s lawsuit over Alaska’s Senate ballot and the administration’s plan to appeal. They also examine a separate federal…
- Joe slams Haley Stevens for endorsing GOP candidate Mike RogersThe Morning Joe panel discusses the fallout after Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The panel breaks down the reaction surrounding the…
- With Election Day’s arrival, it’s time to cast your ballotPolls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Brookings County Voters were busy narrowing down their choices for the general election during the primary election on June 2 in Brookings. BROOKINGS — It’s been months in the making, but at long last…
- Dem PA congressional candidate: The federal government is ‘captured by corporations and billionaires’Democratic congressional candidate and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti joins Morning Joe to discuss her campaign against GOP incumbent Rob Bresnahan Jr. Currently rated a “toss-up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the race for…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions