Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Tennessee Governor margin of victory
The odds
4%Blackburn, 3+ pts
036
How the odds have moved
Blackburn, 3+ pts: 95% on Oct 19, 4% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 9 PM ETBlackburn, 3+ pts: 28% → 4%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 4, 4 PM ETBlackburn, 3+ pts: 19% → 6%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn, 3+ pts | 4% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 1.4K |
| Blackburn, 6+ pts | 4% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 4.0K |
| Blackburn, 9+ pts | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 7.2K |
| Blackburn, 12+ pts | 4% | 0¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 4.3K | |
| Blackburn, 15+ pts | 4% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 6.0K |
| Blackburn, 18+ pts | 4% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | 2.1K |
| Blackburn, 21+ pts | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | 141 |
| Blackburn, 24+ pts | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | 57.00 | |
| Blackburn, 27+ pts | 4% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.36 | 3.2K |
| Blackburn, 30+ pts | 4% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 354 |
| Blackburn, 33+ pts | 4% | ▲ 2 | 10¢ | $10.20 | 84.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tennessee Governor
Search ›- Marsha Blackburn projected to win Tennessee governor's race, Julia Letlow projected to win Louisiana US Senate raceFox News Marsha Blackburn projected to win Tennessee governor's race, Julia Letlow projected to win Louisiana US Senate race Fox News anchor Trace Gallagher reports on projected victories for Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., in Tennessee's…
- Tennessee governor election results 2026Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Justice Department…
- Blackburn wins Tennessee governor's race(The Center Square) – Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Tennessee governor's race on Tuesday, saying in her victory speech it is time to get to work. With votes still being counted and the race called, Blackburn led Democrat…
- Election 2026: Tennessee governor race could be closeWSMV Election 2026: Tennessee governor race could be close What driving conditions could look like overnight into Wednesday morning
- Marsha Blackburn wins Tennessee governor's raceBlackburn said she would begin assembling a team on Wednesday. Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Tennessee governor's race on Tuesday, saying in her victory speech it is time to get to work. With votes still being counted and…
- Clarksville mayor, Tennessee governor to be decided todayToday is Election Day in Montgomery County as registered voters head to their precincts to cast ballots in the Tennessee General and City of Clarksville elections. Tennesseans should know who the next governor will be by this evening, and…
- Tennessee Governor’s Race: Election Results | November 3, 2026There are 15 candidates on the ballot in the race to be Tennessee's next governor. Polls show a 4-way race among Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn, the Democratic nominee Jerri Green, and two independents - David Hatley and Lauren…
- Sen. Marsha Blackburn elected Tennessee governor. What’s next for schools?U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is Tennessee’s next governor. Blackburn, a Republican, pulled out a win in the unusually competitive gubernatorial race. The governor-elect netted less than 50% of the total vote, the smallest margin of victory…
- FOX13 declares US Senator Marsha Blackburn to win Tennessee governor seatMEMPHIS, Tenn. - FOX13 declares that US Senator Marsha Blackburn will win the race for governor in Tennessee. A native of Laurel, Mississippi, Blackburn began her career in politics in 1995 as executive director of the Tennessee Film…
- Marsha Blackburn becomes first woman elected to Tennessee governor’s office, per secretary of stateNASHVILLE, Tenn. (WSMV) - Voters have chosen Marsha Blackburn to be the next governor of Tennessee, making her the first woman elected to the state’s highest office. Blackburn, a Republican senator, will succeed Gov. Bill Lee, who has…
- Marsha Blackburn declares herself winner of Tennessee governor race without official results. Here’s what we knowWVLT Marsha Blackburn declares herself winner of Tennessee governor race without official results. Here’s what we know Blackburn and Green head-to-head during 2026 Tennessee Elections 2026 Elections | The race for power in the house of…
- DECISION 2026: Marsha Blackburn campaign hosting election night watch party for Tennessee governorLocal 3 News Showers in the Vicinity DECISION 2026: Marsha Blackburn makes history as Tennessee's first female governor There are 15 candidates on the ballot this year, and 13 are running as independents. Man in hospital after firing…
Related markets
All governors ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions