Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Texas Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
>99%James Talarico, 5+ pts
010
How the odds have moved
James Talarico, 1+ pts: 61% on Oct 20, >99% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETJames Talarico, 1+ pts: 64% → 59%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico, 1+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 348.6K | |||
| James Talarico, 2+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 600.1K | |||
| James Talarico, 3+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 986.9K | |||
| James Talarico, 4+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 577.6K | |||
| James Talarico, 5+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 882.8K | |||
| James Talarico, 6+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 356.5K | |||
| James Talarico, 7+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 571.1K | |||
| James Talarico, 8+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 476.9K | |||
| James Talarico, 9+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 777.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate
Search ›- Talarico wins Texas Senate seat, NBC News projectsNBC News El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projects Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projects President Trump speaks to various media outlets reacting to midterm results Rep. Debbie Dingell: If Democrats don't…
- Democrat James Talarico wins Texas Senate seatTexas Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters on primary election night in Austin, Texas. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images hide caption Midterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected…
- Full speech: James Talarico projected winner in Texas Senate raceNBC News Texas Governor Greg Abbott concedes his reelection bid Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projects President Trump speaks to various media outlets reacting to midterm results Full speech: James Talarico projected winner…
- James Talarico wins Texas Senate seat: "We just took back Texas"CBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. James Talarico wins Texas…
- Analyzing Alaska, Texas Senate racesAlaska's Senate race garnered attention with Democrat Mary Peltola and two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. In typically red Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico. CBS News' Fin Gómez has more. Analyzing…
- James Talarico calls for unity in victory speech after winning Texas Senate raceFox News James Talarico calls for unity in victory speech after winning Texas Senate race Democrat James Talarico delivers a victory speech calling for unity after winning Texas' U.S. Senate race. The newly elected senator pledges to…
- Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate raceCNBC Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate race
- Cheers erupt at Talarico headquarters as he is projected to win Texas Senate raceCNN Cheers erupt at Talarico headquarters as he is projected to win Texas Senate race Supporters at James Talarico’s campaign headquarters in Austin, Texas, roared and cheered as they watched CNN project the Democratic Senate nominee as…
- James Talarico on flipping Texas Senate seat in race against Ken PaxtonCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. James Talarico on…
- James Talarico upsets Ken Paxton in Texas Senate raceNov 03, 2026 at 11:01 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:13 PM EST James Talarico, a former teacher who built a national profile as an outspoken progressive Christian, is headed to the U.S. Senate after defeating Republican Attorney General Ken…
- CNN Projection: Talarico Will Win Texas Senate Race - Laura Coates Live - Podcast on CNN PodcastsCNN Laura Coates sparks unique conversations and covers the most interesting stories of the day through a news, legal and pop culture lens. Back to episodes list Continuing Midterm Election coverage with Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper.
- Trump's gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upsetDemocrats just made history in Texas. President Donald Trump’s gamble on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a strong ally of the president’s, backfired on him after Texas state Rep. James Talarico pulled off an upset to score Democrats…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions