Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
West Virginia Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
27%Capito, 26+ pts
2448
How the odds have moved
Capito, 26+ pts: 88% on Oct 19, 27% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 2 PM ETCapito, 26+ pts: 15% → 1%
- Oct 31, 11 PM ETCapito, 26+ pts: 87% → 81%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capito, 26+ pts | 27% | 0¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.1K | |
| Capito, 28+ pts | 27% | ▲ 48 | 4¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 2.4K |
| Capito, 30+ pts | 27% | 100¢ | 2.0K | |||
| Capito, 32+ pts | 27% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 962 | ||
| Capito, 34+ pts | 27% | ▲ 62 | 97¢ | $1.03 | 1.8K | |
| Capito, 36+ pts | 27% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 845 | ||
| Capito, 38+ pts | 14% | 39¢ | $2.56 | 796 | ||
| Capito, 40+ pts | 14% | 39¢ | $2.56 | 1.0K | ||
| Capito, 42+ pts | 14% | 39¢ | $2.56 | 469 | ||
| Capito, 44+ pts | 10% | 39¢ | $2.56 | 687 | ||
| Capito, 46+ pts | 1% | 39¢ | $2.56 | 557 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: West Virginia Senate
Search ›- Lance Wheeler elected to serve District 8 in West Virginia SenateWCHS WEST VIRGINIA (WCHS) — Lance Wheeler has been elected to represent District 8 in the West Virginia Senate, defeating Kim Hundley. The district covers a portion of Putnam and Kanawha Counties. Wheeler served the Kanawha County…
- Claypole, Williams capture West Virginia Senate seats affecting Monongalia CountyA voting sign is displayed at the Monongalia County elections office in the Mountaineer Mall in Morgantown. MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Democratic candidates Chris Claypole and John Williams won West Virginia Senate races affecting Monongalia…
- GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito Wins Reelection in West Virginia Senate RaceSen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) won reelection in West Virginia's U.S. Senate race against her Democrat opponent Rachel Anderson. The post GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito Wins Reelection in West Virginia Senate Race appeared first on…
- Democrats pick up seats in West Virginia Senate, which will still have GOP supermajorityDemocrats picked up two seats in the West Virginia Senate, which is dominated by Republicans. Democrats John Williams of Monongalia County and Richie Robb of Kanawha County won their races on election day. Duron Jackson of Cabell County…
- Capito Retains West Virginia Senate Seat as Democrats Retake CongressTAKE ME HOME WV ACTION was the largest outside spender in the supplied race record, reporting $337,585 in expenditures supporting Capito. AMERICAN MISSION, a super PAC, reported two transactions totaling $210,193.20 supporting Capito on…
- Former West Virginia governor and senator Jay Rockefeller dies at 89Washington Examiner Jay Rockefeller, a former Democratic governor and senator of West Virginia, has died at age 89. The former politician died at his home in Washington, D.C., on Friday. His family did not provide a cause of death. Jim…
- Wheeler, Hundley face off for West Virginia Senate District 8 seatHURRICANE, W.Va (WCHS) — Republican candidate Lance Wheeler and Democratic candidate Kim Hundley are both vying for the Senate District 8 seat. Mark Hunt won in 2022 but was elected as State Auditor, leaving Kevan Bartlett to finish the…
- West Virginia Senate District 1WAFB West Virginia Senate District 1 Investigation underway after man drives himself to La Grange gas station after being shot DEPUTIES: Bertie County searching for man wanted for break-ins Non-profit providing service dogs to veterans…
- Maynard, Mazzocchi, Holstein reelected to WV LegislatureWest Virginia Delegate Josh Holstein Boone County voters headed to the polls for the 2026 General Election on Tuesday, Nov. 3, to decide two federal legislative races, three state legislative races, a state constitutional amendment, and…
- NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson loses reelection in North CarolinaNorth Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has lost his race for reelection, a stinging defeat for the man charged with preserving the House majority for the GOP. Hudson had already…
- GOP stronghold remains in WV Senate, but Democrats flip seats to total of 4 membersCHARLESTON â While the state Senate remains firmly under GOP control, Democratic candidates won three seats in the Upper Chamber. Their wins included flipping two seats to Blue in areas with West Virginiaâs last Democratic strongholds…
- Political Expert Assesses Wins, Losses In W.Va. ElectionsElection results in West Virginia will bring more women to the House of Delegates in 2027. In both the House of Delegates and the West Virginia Senate, the 2026 general election saw inroads for Democrats. At least one expert traces the…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
8%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions