Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India? (Before Jan 2029)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $451 traded · $252 at stake · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

37%Before Jan 1, 2029

Before Jul 1, 202713%
Before Jan 1, 202816%
Before Jul 1, 202823%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202937%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jul 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 19, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jul 1, 2027	13%		10¢	15¢	$6.67	971
Before Jan 1, 2028	16%		12¢	19¢	$5.26	158
Before Jul 1, 2028	23%	▲ 1	20¢	26¢	$3.85	304
Before Jan 1, 2029	37%	▲ 1	34¢	39¢	$2.56	645

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets former Indian T20I captain Suryakumar YadavJammu Links News · 4 days agoNEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi met former India T20I captain Suryakumar Yadav and his family in the national capital on Friday. The Prime Minister was seen enjoying some moments with Surya’s young children. Taking to his X…
Suryakumar Yadav Shares Heartfelt Message After Special Meeting With PM Narendra ModiNDTV Sports · 4 days ago"Truly a blessed and heartwarming moment with the Hon'ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi Ji. A beautiful reminder of our rich culture, traditions and the values that bring us together. Grateful for this special moment. Wishing everyone…
Uproar over Narendra Modi’s Birth ControversyCountercurrents · 5 days agoGuess what is broiling India’s political scene. Poverty? Rising unemployment? Caste conflicts? Islamophobia? Maoist insurgency? None of these issues. It is one development, and one only, that is making headlines. It centres around the…
TN CM Joseph Vijay Writes To PM Narendra Modi Seeking Supreme Court's Regional Bench In ChennaiLive Law · 5 days ago4 Nov 2026 8:47 PM IST Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Joseph Vijay has written to the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, reiterating the need for setting up a regional bench of the Supreme Court of India in Chennai. Vijay pointed out that…
PM Narendra Modi inaugurates Bharat Bovine Breeding and Research Centre at Banas Dairydairybusinessmea.com · 5 days agoThe initiative reinforces the importance of scientific breeding, institutional collaboration and investment in livestock infrastructure in shaping the future of India’s dairy industry. Published November 5, 2026 INDIA – Prime Minister…
PM Narendra Modi Meets Indian Contingent After Asian Para Games 2026, Congratulates Athletes On 114-MedalFree Press Journal · 5 days agoPM Narendra Modi met India's Asian Para Games 2026 contingent in New Delhi following its historic performance in Aichi-Nagoya, Japan. Indian para-athletes secured a record 114 medals at the continental competition, including 30 gold, 35…
His Majesty dedicates 76th Stupa to Indian Prime Minister Narendra ModiKuensel Online · 5 days agoKuensel Online - His Majesty dedicates 76th Stupa to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi His Majesty The King has dedicated the 76th of the 108 stupas raised in Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in…
PM Narendra Modi lauds pace of urban India's transformationDeccan Herald · 5 days agoDeccan Herald New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday that cities like Pune would have had to wait decades for Metro connectivity if the network had continued expanding at the pace it did before 2014..In a post on X, Modi…
PM Narendra Modi to Nobel Laureates: A Distinguished Legacy of Global Eminence at LPU Over 25 YearsCityairnews · 5 days agoCityairnews City Air News Nov 4, 2026 08:05 0
Narendra Modi isn’t Donald Trump. India’s electoral math makes it harder to humble BJPThePrint · 5 days agoIt’s easy to understand why a wave of relief has swept the world. Many of us grew up admiring America and its political system. For instance, when I studied US politics at university, I was taught that the American system of checks and…
‘Work 18 hours like Narendra Modi,’ says Lalji Patel:Owner of a ₹7,000 crore company says setting clear goals and working hard can help build wealthBhaskar English · 4 days agoAfter passing Class 10 in 1970, I joined my father in the black cotton trade. In 1975, I arrived in Surat with just the clothes I was wearing, enough money for the journey and ₹500 to cover my lodging expenses. I worked as a diamond…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNarendra Modi, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$451 (2,079 contracts)

At stake$252

In the news5 headlines today, 38 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions