How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?
The odds
Dec 22, 2026even chance by
- Before Dec 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 15, 202616%▼ 4
- Before Dec 25, 202666%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202777%▼ 1
- Before Feb 1, 202784%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 4% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 7% | $14.29 | 1.00 | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 3.5K | |||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.8K | ||
| Before Dec 15, 2026 | 16% | ▼ 4 | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 2.5K |
| Before Dec 25, 2026 | 66% | ▼ 1 | 63¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 500 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 77% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 409 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 84% | ▲ 1 | 80¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 514 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: National Defense Authorization Act, FY2027 NDAA, Fiscal
Search ›- OTCC joins call to reauthorize CISA 2015 in the FY2027 NDAAThe Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015 (CISA 2015) is set to expire on December 11, 2026. To keep that from happening, OTCC joined 34 organizations from across critical infrastructure in a November 1 letter urging the leaders of…
- Will Democrats block Trump’s push to deliver Turkey F-35s, lift sanctions?Democratic control of Congress complicates Turkey’s push for F-35s and sanctions relief, but Ankara remains hopeful Trump can still broker a deal. Will Democrats block Trump’s push to deliver Turkey F-35s, lift sanctions? Democratic…
- Congress enters lame duck session following midterm electionsWASHINGTON (Gray DC) - Congress has a list of unfinished work during the lame duck session, the period between the election of a new Congress and the start of its term, including a Dec. 11 government funding deadline. The session follows…
- Farm Bill Negotiations Enter Final Stretch of the YearWASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — With the midterms over, lawmakers are preparing to return to Washington with little time left to address agricultural priorities, including the Farm Bill. Jeremy Zwinger, president and CEO of Farm and Trade…
- Congress returns with shutdown deadline and possible Hegseth impeachment fightDemocrats are preparing to take control of both chambers of Congress in January, but Republicans still have several weeks in power and a lengthy list of unfinished business before that happens. Lawmakers return to Washington on Monday for…
- Accrete Signs Data Agreement with TenderAlpha to Deepen Supply Chain Risk Insight for Federal CustomersAcross the government, supply chain visibility has become a priority. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) requires closer scrutiny of defense suppliers, and civilian agencies face growing pressure to understand risk in critical…
- U.S. Air Force starts construction of Dyess’ first facility dedicated to B-21 Raider operationsThe U.S. Air Force broke ground Nov. 5 on a $78 million mission planning facility for the B-21 Raider at Dyess Air Force Base in Texas. The 46,000-square-foot building will be the first at Dyess dedicated solely to the new bomber, with…
- USA Provided No Aid to Ukraine Under USAI Program From April Through JulyDuring the second quarter of 2026, the U.S. provided Ukraine with 0 dollars in military aid under the USAI program, which was funded during the Biden administration. This was reported by Militarnyi based on an analysis of reports by the…
- Walkinshaw wants congressional oversight to include FITARA rebootMost expect the Democratic-controlled Congress to focus on oversight when the new session begins in January, but that does not mean a sole focus on claims of corruption and malfeasance by the Trump administration. For Rep. James Walkinshaw…
- AINsight: U.S. Election Brings a Lot and a Little Change To Business Aviation | AINThe U.S. elections this week are bringing a major change to Capitol Hill. Not only did both chambers flip, but they did so in an emphatic way. But what does it mean for aviation? And specifically for business aviation? A lot and a little…
- Letter on Air Force and Space Force Priorities for the FY27 NDAA ConferenceDear Chairmen Wicker and Rogers and Ranking Members Reed and Smith: As you complete the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the Air & Space Forces Association (AFA) offers the following recommendations to strengthen…
- Can the US Democrats' 'Blue Wave' election sweep buoy Ukraine?By Patricia Zengerle, Andrea Shalal and Daniel Flynn Democratic aides in the Senate and House of Representatives told Reuters that beefing up assistance for Ukraine will be a top priority after the new Congress — with large Democratic…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions