Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?
The odds
14%Before Jul 1, 2027
- Before Dec 1, 20264%
- Before Jan 1, 202714%
- Before Jul 1, 202714%
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 6% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 9.2K | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 3.4K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 937 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Written
Search ›- Can scientists reliably tell if a novel is written using AI?David Adam is a journalist based near London and author of The Man Who Couldn’t Stop (2014) and The Genius Within (2018). Tuhin Chakrabarty sees the publishing market splitting into human and AI-generated prose. Credit: Qianxun Yu…
- Texans are 'written off' after losing to Giants, are Bo Nix-Broncos back, Vikings legit? | FTFNick Wright, Chris Broussard, Kevin Wildes and Greg Jennings react to the New York Giants' big win against the Houston Texans and if the Minnesota Vikings are legit Super Bowl contenders with their 6-0 start. They then debate whether it is…
- Ex-Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer under fire for bragging about birthday tribute to daughter — written by AI: ‘Who would do this?’Marissa Mayer may be a tech visionary as the former CEO of Yahoo and Google’s first female engineer, but there’s one simple task she couldn’t handle on her own. Ahead of her daughter Marielle’s 10th birthday, a teacher asked Mayer for…
- The script I should have written a year agoI finally wrote a small script for something I'd been doing by hand every week. Forty minutes to write, about an hour saved every week. The funny part: I'd known it was automatable for months. What changed wasn't the effort, it was being…
- Would you trust an emergency alert written by AI?The problem? The emergency manager had generated the graphic using an artificial intelligence chatbot, and it wasn’t accurate. “That county emergency manager was trying to get his stakeholders to focus on the risk in that county, and so he…
- Letter making claims about Meghan's father written by his first wife, BBC understandsA letter sent to the Metropolitan Police making a number of claims relating to the Duchess of Sussex's father was written by his ex-wife Roslyn Loveless, the BBC understands. Meghan confirmed on Friday she had previously been informed…
- Letter making claims about Meghan's father written by his ex-wife, BBC understandsA letter sent to the Metropolitan Police making a number of claims relating to the Duchess of Sussex's father was written by his ex-wife Roslyn Loveless, the BBC understands. Meghan confirmed on Friday she had previously been informed…
- Kenya: ODM-UDA Pact - Kisumu Bunge La Mwananchi Demands Written Deal Before 2027Kisumu — Bunge La Mwananchi members in Kisumu have called on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to formalise their political cooperation through a written pre-election pact ahead of the 2027…
- Kuyō: a funeral for the code you deleted, written by a local GemmaHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the DEV Hacktoberfest 2026 Challenge, week 4: Ghost in the Machine. EmailService.java, who managed the dispatch of status notifications for…
- The Declaration of Independence: 93% Chance Written By AI?Well this is wild! I saw this floating around today: — Adnaan (@adnaannasir_) October 27, 2026 Here’s a better look: A lot of sites might bring you that story and leave it there, but that’s not how I operate around here. As I do with every…
- 20 Remarkable People Who Were Written Out of HistoryHistory books are full of kings, generals, inventors, and explorers, but what about the people whose work changed the world without earning them a permanent place in the spotlight? Some challenged powerful empires, others made scientific…
- Femtosecond-Laser-Written Composite Grating Pushes Raman-Suppressed Fiber Laser to 9 KilowattsA femtosecond-laser-written composite fiber Bragg grating suppressed stimulated Raman scattering and lifted a fiber oscillator's output to 9 kilowatts. Article Title: Composite fiber Bragg grating written by femtosecond laser for Raman…
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All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
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What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals7%▼ 2
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
23%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions