Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
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Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?
The odds
7%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 13% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 32.2K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 11.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New York Times, Air Force One, Criminal
Search ›- Trump says New York Times 'RELEASED A LION' with Alaska ballot storyFox News Trump says New York Times 'RELEASED A LION' with Alaska ballot story President Donald Trump lauded the New York Times for its reporting on the Alaska ballot scandal, saying the newspaper 'released a lion.'
- New York Times gleeful over Democrats huge midterm victories, says it's time to ‘feel pride’The New York Times editorial board took a victory lap Tuesday night following the Democratic Party's sweeping wins in the midterm elections, insisting that now is the time for Americans to "feel pride." "In the face of the president’s many…
- WME Joins New York Times Copyright Battle Again OpenAIIn the true sense of American capitalism and Hollywood dealmaking put together, WME doesn’t have a problem with AI, but the Ari Emanuel-chaired agency wants the right kind of AI for its clients and creators. “WME’s position is therefore…
- New York Times and other outlets sue web browser Brave over alleged content scrapingFounder Summit begins Nov. 4, 9:00 a.m. ET. Get your pass savings & deals before it starts. REGISTER HERE. The New York Times sued Brave, the 11-year-old, privacy-focused browser company, on Monday, alleging it scraped the outlet’s…
- The New York Times and other publications sue Brave web browser for AI scraping and bypassing paywallsThe New York Times and a group of other publications have filed lawsuits against the company that makes the Brave web browser over alleged unlawful scraping to train AI and also letting users bypass their paywalls, as reported by Reuters…
- Police Launch Formal Investigation Into Data Breach of 168 Air Force One PassengersThe National Police Agency upgraded its probe to a formal investigation on the 3rd regarding the leak of personal information belonging to 168 passengers on Air Force One during a European tour this past June. The leaked files included…
- Was Air Force One Personal Data Leaked During Transfer to Belgium?An investigation has been launched into the leak of personal information belonging to the presidential delegation, including President Lee Jae-myung and the first lady. Authorities believe the file containing personal information was…
- New York Times gains as Q3 profit beats estimates(NYT:NYSE) Seeking Alpha What drove The New York Times' third-quarter earnings beat? How strong was The New York Times' digital subscription growth? What does The New York Times expect for fourth-quarter growth and costs?
- Korea probes Air Force One passenger data leak impacting 168, including presidentChosunbiz Korea probes Air Force One passenger data leak impacting 168, including president The Personal Information Protection Commission received a report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the personal data leak of 168…
- New York Times Mocked Over Story“The New York Times came in for online mockery Tuesday after a list it published of Jewish voters saying they would back Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for Senate included the unfortunate moniker ‘Jack Mehoff,'” the New York Post…
- The New York Times Company (NYT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptThe New York Times Company (NYT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call November 4, 2026 8:00 AM EST Anthony DiClemente - Senior Vice President of Investor RelationsMeredith Kopit Levien - CEO, President & DirectorWilliam Bardeen - Executive VP & Chief…
- Personal Information Protection Commission Receives Report on Leak of Air Force One Passengers' Personal InformationPublished 03 Nov.2026 15:32(KST) Updated 03 Nov.2026 15:37(KST) The Personal Information Protection Commission has received a report of a data breach involving individuals who boarded Air Force One to accompany the president on an overseas…
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All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices17%
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals7%▼ 2
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
22%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar22%▼ 5
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%▼ 1
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Liz Cheney4%
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions