Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage? (Before 2029)
The odds
7%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 9% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.82 | 106.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court
Search ›- Supreme Court tosses Wisconsin state legislative maps but keeps congressional maps in placeUpdated on: March 23, 2022 / 6:22 PM EDT / CBS News The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday tossed out state legislative maps in Wisconsin that were drawn by Democratic Governor Tony Evers, but it left in place the governor's congressional…
- Supreme Court set to pare back federal inmates’s ability to sue officialsWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday appeared likely to bar prison inmates from suing officials who deny them medical treatment in the latest case seeking to roll back the ability to hold federal officials accountable for alleged…
- Supreme Court allows Trump administration to resume border wall construction in Big Bend regionNovember 9, 2026 / 3:00 PM EST / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for the Trump administration to resume building a border wall and other infrastructure through a remote area of West Texas while litigation…
- Supreme Court weighs effort to shield federal law enforcement as ICE complaints riseThe Supreme Court is seen on Oct. 1 in Washington, D.C. J. Scott Applewhite/AP hide caption Five years ago, a gang riot broke out inside a federal prison in Hawaii. Kekai Watanabe was beaten with a makeshift weapon known as a "lock in a…
- Supreme Court allows Trump to continue border wall construction in Big Bend region of TexasThe Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump to continue border wall construction in the Big Bend region of Texas – including Big Bend National Park ... The Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump to continue border wall…
- Supreme Court allows major part of Trump’s border security project in TexasBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The more than 500-mile…
- Supreme Court sides with parents who objected to kids' books on gender identity, sexualityUpdated on: June 27, 2025 / 4:04 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Friday ruled in favor of a group of Maryland parents who challenged their school district's decision to deny them the ability to opt their elementary-aged…
- Supreme Court hears social media cases that could reshape how Americans interact onlineUpdated on: February 26, 2024 / 3:51 PM EST / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court heard arguments Monday in a pair of social media cases that could transform online speech. The two cases concern disputes over Republican-backed laws in…
- Supreme Court paves way for Trump to build a section of his border wall in the Big Bend area of TexasWASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday allowed President Donald Trump to move forward with construction of his border wall in the remote Big Bend region of southwest Texas. Construction there had been challenged by an environmental group…
- Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump's order to end birthright citizenshipUpdated on: April 1, 2026 / 7:42 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Wednesday appeared skeptical of President Trump's bid to end birthright citizenship, hearing arguments in a high-stakes case that tests one of the pillars…
- Supreme Court’s trend on church and state is a reminder conservatives have a steady grip on the nation’s lawsThe Supreme Court first agreed to hear the case that launched the justices’ current trajectory protecting the free exercise of religion in January 2016. But after Justice Antonin Scalia suddenly died the next month, creating a possible 4-4…
- Democrats eye Supreme Court reforms after the midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Democrats eye…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices17%
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals7%▼ 2
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
22%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar22%▼ 5
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%▼ 1
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Liz Cheney4%
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions