How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will the American Affordability and Jobs Act become law? (Before Mar 1, 2027)
The odds
67%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202767%▲ 33
- Before Mar 1, 202773%▲ 31
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 40% on Oct 19, 67% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 8 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 34% → 67%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 4, 3 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 33% → 39%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 67% | ▲ 33 | 65¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 5.8K |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 73% | ▲ 31 | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: American Affordability and Jobs Act
Search ›- Estimating the US Energy System Impacts of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs ActWe model key components of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) and their impacts on the US energy system, electricity prices, and greenhouse gas emissions. The provisions of BAAJA that we modeled deliver consistent…
- What the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act Means for Energy and Infrastructure12-1 p.m. ET | 11 a.m.-12 p.m. CT | 9-10 a.m. PT Last month leaders of the Senate Environment and Public Works and Energy and Natural Resources Committees reached agreement... 12-1 p.m. ET | 11 a.m.-12 p.m. CT | 9-10 a.m. PT Last month…
- Wicker: Permit reform act is a much-needed course correctionBelow is an opinion column by Roger Wicker: U.S. Senator Roger Wicker says America is winning the artificial intelligence race, “But without a stronger power grid, we cannot hold our edge.” A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators recently…
- Public lands on the lineAt an outreach meeting over tacos and tortilla chips in Vail, 20 miles outside Tucson, the nonprofit Save the Scenic Santa Ritas had an urgent message for its dozens of attendees. Later this month, a U.S. Senate vote on a bill could topple…
- Democrats Retake Congress. Here’s What They Plan to Do With It.Restoring renewable tax credits and investigating Energy Department funding cuts are on the table. It was a seismic national shift to the left, spurred in no small part by voters’ opposition to infrastructure supporting artificial…
- Trump Goes into the Midterms with a Gas Price RecordOn OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten Beep beep. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images This Halloween, get 20% off using code ADVANCED BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s…
- GUEST COLUMN: Benefits of new climate bill justify compromisesOn September 30, a new bill, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), was introduced in the U.S. Senate. This bill, if passed, will improve the reliability of the electricity grid, lower energy prices, and enable an…
- Bedrock Environmental and Public Health Laws Under Threat in Lame Duck Congress - Beyond Pesticides Daily News BlogThis action follows and earlier Farm bill action asking members of Congress to reject the current Farm Bill, adopt a one-year-extension to existing law, giving a new Congress time to pass an emergency supplemental appropriations bill for…
- Congress should take this chance to address climate change and lower energy costsPeter Dugas is the Maine state coordinator for Citizens’ Climate Lobby, a nonpartisan, grassroots advocacy organization that empowers everyday people to work together on climate policy. Jeff Marks is the executive director of ClimateWork…
- Solar Energy Industries Association WebinarMcGuireWoods 2 p.m. – 3 p.m. ET Partner Mark D. Nickel will be a featured speaker on the Solar Energy Industries Association webinar “De-Risking Commercial BESS Assets for Maximum Profit and Performance” on November 5, 2026. Battery energy…
- NACo submits comments on Census Bureau's proposed rule on the 2030 decennial censusRead NACo’s Comment Letter See NACo's Extension Request Letter Every ten years, the U.S. Constitution requires the U.S. Census Bureau to count the total population in the country. The results are used to apportion seats in the U.S. House…
- A ‘Bipartisan’ Bill to Dismantle the Nation’s Bedrock Environmental LawThe sponsors of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act say it will improve energy infrastructure development. The truth is that it will fast-track environmental destruction. NEPA’s genius is its modesty. As the Supreme Court…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions